When Polymarket launches in the US, what’s that going to look like and how disruptive might it be? Pet Berisha of Sporting Crypto also talks with me about Robinhood going international, Kalshi wanting to go crypto, and how much do state-regulated sportsbooks need to worry about all of this… particularly Kalshi’s launch of parlays.

Of note: Polymarket.us now has a landing page, but the app is not yet live for real money:

And from InGame, surmising that Polymarket might not be able to launch until the government shutdown ends:

“Polymarket will not be able to offer its prediction markets in the U.S. until a government shutdown comes to an end if past precedent is anything to go by. In the past, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has stayed self-certifications of new markets until the government returns to full activity. The current shutdown began Oct. 1. ‘In the past, [CFTC] staff have taken the position that self-certifications are stayed during government shutdowns,’ a legal expert in commodities regulation told InGame, before adding, ‘but that’s not written in law.’’

Conveniently, you can bet/trade on the length of the shutdown at both Kalshi and Polymarket!

Also of note: Kalshi has been posting self-certifications since the shutdown began.

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit nexteventhorizon.substack.com