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Editor’s Note — Edition 30
There’s a point in every market cycle when confidence starts to sound rehearsed. Not wrong—just overlearned. This week had that feel.
On the surface, everything looks decisive. AI companies raise money at valuations that would have sounded absurd two years ago. Platform owners defend their toll booths with fresh conviction. CEOs publish neat lists of what will matter next year, as if complexity still submits to enumeration. Everyone sounds certain. That’s usually the signal.
Look closer and the seams show. OpenAI isn’t challenging Apple head-on; it’s trying to change how software is consumed altogether. Private AI markets inflate faster than public ones, driven by belief more than cash flow. Leaders are urged to delegate more, even as accountability stretches past what delegation can realistically carry. The system keeps demanding leverage—human, capital, computational—without pricing the cost of sustaining it.
This edition isn’t about prediction. It’s about tension. Between platforms and creators. Between capital and patience. Between leadership theory and operational reality. The real question isn’t who wins. It’s who recognizes the constraint early enough to adapt.
As Heraclitus put it: πάντα ῥεῖ — everything flows.
— Ben
Don't forget to check and follow me on LinkedIn
Some things read better than they sound—charts and data included in the written edition.
By Ben EsmaelEditor’s Note — Edition 30
There’s a point in every market cycle when confidence starts to sound rehearsed. Not wrong—just overlearned. This week had that feel.
On the surface, everything looks decisive. AI companies raise money at valuations that would have sounded absurd two years ago. Platform owners defend their toll booths with fresh conviction. CEOs publish neat lists of what will matter next year, as if complexity still submits to enumeration. Everyone sounds certain. That’s usually the signal.
Look closer and the seams show. OpenAI isn’t challenging Apple head-on; it’s trying to change how software is consumed altogether. Private AI markets inflate faster than public ones, driven by belief more than cash flow. Leaders are urged to delegate more, even as accountability stretches past what delegation can realistically carry. The system keeps demanding leverage—human, capital, computational—without pricing the cost of sustaining it.
This edition isn’t about prediction. It’s about tension. Between platforms and creators. Between capital and patience. Between leadership theory and operational reality. The real question isn’t who wins. It’s who recognizes the constraint early enough to adapt.
As Heraclitus put it: πάντα ῥεῖ — everything flows.
— Ben
Don't forget to check and follow me on LinkedIn
Some things read better than they sound—charts and data included in the written edition.