With all the talk of statistics in relation to the equity market move after the first rate cut, history is not on the side of a bullish move after the Fed’s first rate cut was 50bps, with the last 2 occasions seeing the S&P500 fall 39% and 54% over the following 12-18 months and the Fed underestimating the spike in unemployment by half. Both occasions ended in a recession. However, this time the Fed seem to more ahead of the curve than in 2001 & 2007 which may result in a softer landing than previous occasions. Below show the market move if a recession is avoided