In this episode, we move from the “why” to the “how” of thinking in bets, the science that separates disciplined decision-makers from lucky guessers. We explore the power of base rates, the pitfalls of overconfidence, and the cultural shift needed to overcome outcome bias. Drawing from Kahneman and Tversky’s foundational research, Moore and Healy’s overconfidence studies, the Good Judgment Project’s lessons from superforecasters, and McKinsey’s work on behavioural strategy, this episode gives you a practical four-step challenge to make better, more adaptable decisions under uncertainty.

References:

1) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124

2) The Trouble with Overconfidence: https://doi.org/10.1037/0033-295X.115.2.502

3) Outcome bias in decision evaluation: https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.54.4.569

4) Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic Predictions: https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691615577794

5) The case for behavioral strategy: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-case-for-behavioral-strategy

Music Credit: Switch It Up, performed by Silent Partner, from the YouTube Studio Audio Library