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Episode 5
Maine's Democratic Senate primary has a clear frontrunner in Graham Platner, but while he is now polling better than Susan Collins, can this momentum last in a general election matchup? Plus: does who pays for a poll tell you everything about the results? In this episode, we cover:
- Is Graham Platner the inevitable Democratic nominee in Maine? New polling shows Platner leading incumbent Governor Janet Mills by 40 points in the primary and beating Susan Collins by nine in a general election head-to-head, while Mills trails Collins by three. We break down what the numbers mean for the race, whether Mills drops out before the primary, and how Platner is running the "Zohran Mamdani playbook:" anti-establishment, populist, and seemingly scandal-proof.
- Is the Texas Senate runoff tightening, or is this poll just Democratic wishful thinking? A new GQR poll, commissioned by the Democratic Senate Majority PAC, shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by five points. We analyze who GQR is, why the poll's methodological choices matter, what the SAVE Act has to do with Trump's endorsement calculus, and why Mark still thinks Cornyn wins despite his underdog status.
- Can you trust a poll paid for by the group that wants a specific answer? — A Morning Consult survey with "Gambling is Not Investing" asks adults whether prediction markets are gambling. We dissect how leading question sequences can manufacture results, why internal polls can be more accurate than public ones, and whether prediction markets are closer to futures trading than sports betting.
Hot takes: Spencer Pratt for mayor of Los Angeles? Mark makes what he calls his boldest prediction yet. Reality TV villain Spencer Pratt, whose house burned down in the Palisades fires, could pull off the biggest upset in modern political history against incumbent Karen Bass.
The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.
The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.
Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.
Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com
View all episodes
By Overton InsightsMaine's Democratic Senate primary has a clear frontrunner in Graham Platner, but while he is now polling better than Susan Collins, can this momentum last in a general election matchup? Plus: does who pays for a poll tell you everything about the results? In this episode, we cover:
- Is Graham Platner the inevitable Democratic nominee in Maine? New polling shows Platner leading incumbent Governor Janet Mills by 40 points in the primary and beating Susan Collins by nine in a general election head-to-head, while Mills trails Collins by three. We break down what the numbers mean for the race, whether Mills drops out before the primary, and how Platner is running the "Zohran Mamdani playbook:" anti-establishment, populist, and seemingly scandal-proof.
- Is the Texas Senate runoff tightening, or is this poll just Democratic wishful thinking? A new GQR poll, commissioned by the Democratic Senate Majority PAC, shows Ken Paxton leading John Cornyn by five points. We analyze who GQR is, why the poll's methodological choices matter, what the SAVE Act has to do with Trump's endorsement calculus, and why Mark still thinks Cornyn wins despite his underdog status.
- Can you trust a poll paid for by the group that wants a specific answer? — A Morning Consult survey with "Gambling is Not Investing" asks adults whether prediction markets are gambling. We dissect how leading question sequences can manufacture results, why internal polls can be more accurate than public ones, and whether prediction markets are closer to futures trading than sports betting.
Hot takes: Spencer Pratt for mayor of Los Angeles? Mark makes what he calls his boldest prediction yet. Reality TV villain Spencer Pratt, whose house burned down in the Palisades fires, could pull off the biggest upset in modern political history against incumbent Karen Bass.
The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Michael Melendez, co-founder and pollster at Tactical Campaigns.
The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels.
Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines.
Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com