Enrollment management, at its core, is a prediction business. Annually, thousands of admissions officers polish off the crystal ball and project what the enrollment future holds for their institutions. Yogi Berra often quipped that “The future isn’t what it used to be” and no where is that truer than in higher education enrollment predictions. Thom and Brad walk through the primary ways the enrollment prediction industry has missed the mark through antiquated methodology and folk theory. Modern machine learning techniques require a new mindset about how we as professionals think about our future. What can The Farmer’s Almanac, Ron Popeil’s rotisserie chickens, and Uber teach us about enrollment predictions? Pull up a barstool and join the conversation.

Beers:

Thom: Pabst Brewing Company, La Crosse, WI, oldstylebeer.com, Heileman’s Old Style Lager

Brad: Bauhaus Brew Labs, Minneapolis, MN, bauhausbrewlabs.com, Stargrazer Schwarzbier

Links: The Numbers

Brad:

2015 National College Football Attendance

Thom:

Closure Concerns and Financial Strategies: a Survey of College Business Officers Inside Higher Ed, July 17, 2015

The Sustainable University, Bain and Company

Additional References:

The 5 Ways Enrollment Predictions Are Putting Colleges Out of Business

Jordan Ellenberg, How Not to Be Wrong: The power of mathematical thinking

How Accurate Is the Farmer’s Almanac’s Winter Forecast?

Music:

Artist: The Insider

Track: One Fine Day

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