Episode 58 of "What's Hot, What's Not C.R.E." — your daily commercial real estate briefing for Wednesday, March 11th, 2026.Today's Topic: 10-Year Treasury — Rates & CRE Impact🔥 WHAT'S HOT:

• 10-Year Treasury: Holding steady at 4.17% — up 6bps monthly, down 15bps YoY
• Sweet Spot: 4.0-4.2% range is unlocking CRE deal flow
• Transaction Velocity: Up 16% YoY, CBRE projects $562B investment volume in 2026
• Cap Rates Stabilized: Multifamily Class A 4.5-5.25%, Industrial 5.5-6.25%, Grocery-anchored 5.75-6.5%
• Banks Back in the Game: PNC, M&T expanding CRE lending for stabilized assets
• MBA Forecast: Commercial mortgage originations up 27% this year
• CMBS Active: KBRA forecasts $183B in private-label CRE securitization — post-GFC high

• No Rate Cuts Coming: March FOMC has 97% probability of no change
• Dot Plot: Shows just ONE 25bp cut for 2026 — adjust your models
• Maturity Wall: $100B+ in CMBS loans maturing, $76.6B hitting hard maturity (no extension options)
• Default Risk: More than half of maturing CMBS expected to default — office driving distress
• Long-Term Yields: Bank of America sees 10-year ending 2026 between 4.0-4.5% — flat to up from here

• Rate stability — not rate cuts — is what's unlocking deals
• Investors have stopped waiting for the Fed and are underwriting to current rates
• Transaction volume recovering even without meaningful rate relief
• Deals getting done today pencil at 4%+ — that's the new baseline

• Underwrite conservatively at current rates — don't chase deals that only work with rate cuts
• 4.0-4.2% Treasury range supports attractive cap rate spreads
• Focus on fundamentals: occupancy, rent growth, durable income
• That's where returns are made in 2026

❄️ WHAT'S NOT:💡 WHY IT MATTERS:🎯 INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:Visit hotnotcre.com to learn more and subscribe to our newsletter.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #10YearTreasury #InterestRates #FederalReserve #FOMC #CapRates #CMBS #MaturityWall #RealEstateInvesting #CRELending #TransactionVolume #DealFlow #MultifamilyInvesting #IndustrialRealEstate #RetailRealEstate #RealEstateFinance #MortgageRates #PropertyInvestment #RealEstateTrends #MarketUpdate #InstitutionalInvesting #PrivateCredit #BondMarket #YieldCurve #RealEstateDebt #CREInvesting #RealEstate2026 #Underwriting #CapRateSpread #IncomeFocused #DurableIncome #WhatsHotWhatsNot