Back when Ben was in his late 20s, he met up with his friend, Brian, at a bar. Brian was a graduate student exploring if and how to become a philosophy professor. So, Ben created a decision tree at the bar on-the-fly.

Brian said:

"Ben this is amazing - you should just take these decision analysis concepts and work with people in their 20s who are making big decisions about their life direction!"

Well, 25 years later, Ben's finally doing this! This episode introduces one of the most practical tools from decision analysis: the decision tree.

Decision trees help you get the ideas out of your head and onto paper, so you can clearly see:

what you control

what you don’t

how uncertainty affects your choices

Ben starts with the cleanest decision imaginable (a simple coin flip) to show how decision trees work. Then he applies the same structure to everyday choices (like whether to go to a movie) and high-stakes real-life decisions, including a dental dilemma.

You’ll learn how decision trees:

bring values, alternatives, and information together

help you separate decisions from outcomes

reveal missing information

give you clarity of action so you can make quality decisions BEFORE the outcome happens

There’s also a hands-on exercise to help you map a real decision you’re facing right now. Plus, Ben offers a bonus section for those who want to go deeper with expected value.

This episode wraps up the core decision-making tools of the Toolkit and sets the stage for what comes next: learning how to learn, one of the most powerful skills you can build in your 20s.

Now, it’s your turn!

Set up a decision tree based on an upcoming decision in your life!

If you get an insight from this exercise, post it as a comment so others can learn too.

And if you’d like help building your decision tree or calculating expected value, send a note to [email protected] and let’s get a conversation going!

Resources

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bfMFLXssBoU