It's Wednesday, April 8th, 2026 — tracking the 10-year Treasury and what it signals for commercial real estate.WHAT'S HOT:

• 10-Year Treasury eased to 4.25% — down 8 bps from yesterday's 4.33%
• Sitting in the sweet spot — 4.0 to 4.25% range where cap rate spreads work
• Agency CMBS spreads compressed ~15 bps in early 2026
• Ginnie Mae 223f spreads at tightest levels since May 2022
• Commercial mortgage rates starting at 5.36% as of April 7th
• Low-leverage spreads tightening into 115-125 bps range
• Banks easing underwriting standards for first time since 2022 rate hikes
• Life insurance companies increasing allocations, actively seeking to place capital
• Multifamily, industrial, grocery-anchored retail are favored asset classes
• Q1 2026 transaction volume projected to exceed $66B — marginal improvement over Q1 2025
• Office and Industrial emerged as pace leaders
• Southeast outperformed all regions — 26% increase in transaction dollar volume

• Rate cut expectations fading — Fed held at 3.5-3.75% for second consecutive meeting
• CME FedWatch shows only 27.5% probability of December 2026 cut
• JPMorgan forecasts no cuts in 2026 — possible hike in Q3 2027
• Goldman Sachs expects two cuts, but they're in the minority
• CPI core inflation projected at 3.1% year-end 2026; PCE core at 2.9%
• Fed's 2% target still out of reach
• Tariffs, fiscal deficits, elevated energy prices keeping upward pressure
• $875B in CRE loans maturing in 2026 — refinancing pressure is real
• Borrowers who financed at 3-4% now facing 6-8% refinancing rates
• Bid-ask spreads still wide; deal velocity anemic in some sectors

WHAT'S NOT:WHY IT MATTERS:The 10-year at 4.25% is constructive for CRE. Every 100 bps move in the 10-year translates to 41 bps of cap rate movement for industrial, 75 bps for multifamily, and 78 bps for retail. We're in a range where transactions can clear — but we need stability, not just a single-day move. The Fed projecting only one cut this year means rates stay higher for longer. Fiscal deficits exceeding 100% of GDP are putting structural upward pressure on yields. Don't expect sub-4% rates anytime soon.INVESTOR TAKEAWAY:The 10-year at 4.25% is a green light for selective deployment. Lock in financing while CMBS spreads are tight. Focus on multifamily, industrial, and necessity retail where lenders are competing. But underwrite conservatively — refinancing risk is real, and rate cuts aren't coming fast.#TreasuryYield #InterestRates #CRE #CommercialRealEstate #CMBS #CapRates #Multifamily #Industrial #Retail #FederalReserve #RealEstateFinance #CREInvesting #Refinancing #LendingConditions #DealFlow #PropertyInvesting #RealEstateMarket #WhatsHotWhatsNot