As Trump shifts policy, U.S. troops withdraw from northern Syria; Turkey ready to move in
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-10-06/turkey-will-invade-syria-isis-fighters
- what’s the economic impact? Trump tweeted he would “obliterate the economy of Turkey” if Turkey does anything he doesn’t like.

Iran says Chinese state oil firm withdraws from $5B deal
https://www.apnews.com/b11873fcb1ed49cf9ad2d0bfdc38798c
- Total already withdrew from this deal back in 2018
- Win for the Trump administration?
- Sign that things are going badly for Iranian oil and gas industry
- China to remain Iran’s primary trading partner.

Energy Secretary Rick Perry eyeing exit in November
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/03/rick-perry-expected-to-resign-000189
- apparently Rick Perry refuted this and does not plan to leave his position.
- currently working on deal with Ukraine, Poland and Baltic states for LNG

Ecuador to quit OPEC in 2020 in search of bigger export revenue
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecuador-opec/ecuador-to-quit-opec-in-2020-in-search-of-bigger-export-revenue-idUSKBN1WG4KB

Ecuador protests: State of emergency declared as fuel subsidies end
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49929272
Will leaping OPEC help relations with South and North America?
- Constraining production has done nothing for Ecuador
- Look for Ecuador to move closer to Mexico

BP to make Bernard Looney CEO as climate challenge looms
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bp-ceo/bp-names-bernard-looney-as-next-ceo-dudley-to-leave-in-2020-idUSKBN1WJ0JX
- will he bring changes to BP? Will strategy

Robin Goodman - Bush China Foundation
- Focus on national security, international relations issues, nuclear non-proliferation in light of legacy of George HW Bush
- CNCP pulling out of Iran natural gas deal - china’s goals are long-term stability and growth of country. Planning out things in long-term. Shortest term planning they tend to do is 5 years, but leadership is looking much farther.
- whenever a deal comes across, leadership are looking for long-term whereas we tend to plan for right now, base on current market conditions.
- China understands its history and civilization as one that goes through ups and downs and are players in a long story. Make decisions based on those timelines.
- How does this apply to CNPC’s recent decision to pull out of gas field development of Iranian field? Does China think that Iran is no longer a good long-term investment? Last 5 year plan contained directive to double natural gas consumption. Ultimate goal to get off of coal. China also has a great deal of natural gas resources. China is not just looking for energy independence in terms of domestic production, they are looking for a diversified supply of energy. Natural gas will be China’s largest area of growth. Thinking has shifted around Iran in terms of the overall mix Iran was providing to China.
- China and Venezuela: To Venezuela, China is a very different kind of partner.
- Upcoming conference on China-US relations. Energy included in conference looking at many issues (agriculture, etc.) First conference since passing of fmr President George HW Bush.
[email protected]
Www.BushChinaConference.org

Happy Birthday to Ryan’s daughter Scarlett and happy anniversary to Ryan and Haylee!

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