New Podcast is LIVE: Mark & Riley EPL Update: 

Inside the pod, we review the updated 2018 EPL model, including a review of:

• 538 Soccer model - number of goals a team would score against an average team
• Expected goals - probability of scoring from a shot based on position and defender location (and the specific player taking the shot)

Riley also goes into his new *Tactical* rating system, attempting to quantify: 

• Ball Winning = Interceptions / Opponents possession
• Fluidity Net =  Quality of expected goals vs quality of expected goals allowed
• Attack Efficiency = Expected goals / Possession
• Defense Efficiency  = Expected goals allowed  / Opp Possession
• Ball Advancement Rating = Value each player adds to advancing the ball in each game 
  
  

The early results from the model are fantastic:

Moneyline:  28 plays, 50%, +5.03 units won
Over/Under: 26 plays, 62%, +7.33 units won
BTTS: 5 plays, 20%, -4.13 units won
Asian Handicap: 2 plays, 50%, +0.26 units won

Overall: 
EPL: 55 plays, 56%, +8.85 units
UCL: 7 plays, 28%, -0.36 units

 

More info: https://www.cleardatasports.com/epl-11-new-podcast-mark-riley-epl-update/