The Beer Driven Devs

Estimation lies we tell ourselves

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Time to talk estimates. Again.

In this episode, Matt and Liam circle back to one of software’s perennial pain points: estimation. But rather than rehashing the usual agile clichés, we dig into the psychology behind why we get it wrong so consistently, and so confidently.

We explore:

  • Planning fallacies and optimism bias
  • Why developers often estimate based on their “best case scenario” flow state
  • How familiarity skews our sense of effort
  • The real-world difference between experienced devs and juniors (and why it’s not what you think)
  • What makes some tasks “heavier” than others, even when the code is simple

    • Plus: We dig into an underappreciated truth: sometimes, what makes a task hard isn’t technical at all. It’s you. Your mood, your context switching, your energy. That’s what makes this stuff so hard to measure.

    Whether you’ve ever blurted out “should be a quick fix!” only to be eaten alive by edge cases, or you’re sick of being asked for an “accurate” delivery date before you’ve even opened the repo, this one’s for you.

    🍻 Tonight’s Drinks:

    Matt – Oakvale Shiraz

    Liam – Archie Rose Whiskey

    🔗 Links from the Episode:

    • Planning Fallacy – Wikipedia
    • Optimism Bias – Wikipedia
    • Burndown burnout episode

      • As always, any Likes 👍, Shares 📣, Subscriptions 🔔 and ❤️ go a long way to helping us keep doing this for fun.

      Cheers!

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      The Beer Driven DevsBy Matt Goldman & Liam Elliott