In this episode, we'll discuss the limitations of models like Value at Risk (VaR) in predicting rare events, highlighting the importance of being prepared for unforeseen circumstances. I also touch on the anchoring bias and how it can lead investors to overemphasize past performance, overlooking current market conditions. we'll finish up with practical tips on staying flexible, updating beliefs, and investing for preparation rather than prediction.

Below are the time stamps of specific topics mentioned.

Expect the Unexpected: 0 - 0:45

Intro: 0:45 - 1:20

Value at Risk: 1:19 - 2:40

100 Year Events: 2:40 - 3:20

Value at Risk Criticism: 3:21 - 3:42

Alan Green Span Quote: 3:44 - 4:18

Anchoring Bias: 4:19 - 4:49

2023 Predictions: 4:50 - 6:41

Action Items: 6:43 - 8:15

Books mentioned:

Same as Ever - by Morgan Housel

Naked Statistics - by Charles Wheelan