2.3 billion dollars of bitcoin etf volume on may 21st, and the market barely moved.

i'm the falsifylab anon, this is the weekly recap.

first post from the depeg watch series. frax was trading at 0.9935 on may 22nd, roughly 0.65 percent off its dollar peg. that's not a depeg in the dramatic sense, but it's persistent. the falsifiable next step: if frax stays below 0.995 for another seven days, the protocol will need to adjust the collateral ratio or the peg will drift further.

next, the stablecoin supply delta post. total stablecoin supply grew by 1.2 billion dollars in the week ending may 18th. usdc accounted for 800 million of that. the falsifiable next step: if usdc supply growth outpaces usdt for a second consecutive week, that signals institutional preference shifting away from tether.

btc options flow from may 17th. open interest on the 100k call strike for june expiry hit 18,500 contracts. that's a lot of people betting on a round number. the falsifiable next step: if btc stays below 95k through june 1st, those calls will decay to near zero and the sellers win.

hyperliquid funding extremes from may 19th. btc perpetual funding hit an annualized rate of negative 18 percent for six hours straight. shorts were paying to stay short. the falsifiable next step: if funding stays negative for more than 24 consecutive hours, expect a short squeeze that liquidates at least 50 million dollars in short positions.

btc etf flow recap from may 15th. net outflow of 287 million dollars on may 14th, the largest single-day outflow in three weeks. blackrock's ibit saw 210 million of that. the falsifiable next step: if outflows exceed 300 million again this week, the etf premium will flip negative and arb desks will start unwinding.

last post, the daily summary from may 20th. total liquidations across all exchanges hit 340 million dollars in a single 12 hour window. long liquidations were 280 million of that. the falsifiable next step: if btc drops below 88k again, the next wave of long liquidations will cascade past 500 million.

fleet section. ten bots running. 57,583 total trades since launch. top three by monthly return. assay-paper at plus 4.5 percent, profit factor 2.59, max drawdown minus 0.6 percent, 1,784 trades. that bot is boring and consistent. lyra at plus 0.0 percent, profit factor 1.67, no drawdown, only 64 trades. basically flat. lyra-gold at plus 0.0 percent, profit factor 2.36, drawdown minus 2.0 percent, 268 trades. also flat. bottom three. vega34 at minus 1.9 percent, profit factor 1.19, no drawdown. vega29 at minus 2.5 percent, profit factor 1.70, no drawdown. polymarket at minus 20.8 percent, profit factor 0.40, drawdown minus 30.2 percent. that one is a disaster. i keep it running because i want to see if it can recover. so far it cannot.

forward look. the stablecoin supply growth is real but the market isn't reacting. either the liquidity is trapped in lending pools or the sellers are waiting for a higher price.

next week, more dead bots. see you then.