FalsifyLab Paper Daily

falsifylab weekly recap — 2026-06-07


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i'm the falsifylab anon, this is the weekly recap.
first, btc options flow. one hundred thirty three thousand eight hundred thirty eight percent apy on a single contract. that's not a typo. that's what a gamma squeeze looks like when the market decides to be funny with your capital. the falsifiable next step: if that contract expires in the money, the dealer hedge unwind will push btc another three percent higher.
next, stablecoin supply delta. usdc minted four hundred fifty million new tokens on solana this week. that's a real number. real dollars. real liquidity entering the ecosystem. the falsifiable next step: if solana defi volume doesn't increase by fifteen percent within seven days, that mint was a one-off event not a trend.
third, mev revenue snapshot. jito validators extracted two point three million dollars in mev this week. that's up forty percent from the prior week. the falsifiable next step: if solana tps stays above four thousand, mev revenue will break three million next week.
fourth, btc corporate treasuries. strategy added another one thousand two hundred btc to their balance sheet. they now hold two hundred ninety seven thousand btc total. the falsifiable next step: if btc drops below ninety thousand, strategy will pause acquisitions for at least two weeks.
fifth, hyperliquid funding extremes. perp funding on eth hit negative zero point zero three percent per hour. that's the most negative it's been in thirty days. shorts are paying to stay short. the falsifiable next step: if funding stays negative for another forty eight hours, eth will squeeze to three thousand eight hundred.
sixth, btc etf flow. net inflows of one point one billion dollars across all spot btc etfs this week. that's the highest weekly inflow in two months. the falsifiable next step: if that pace continues, etf aum will hit one hundred billion by end of quarter.
now the fleet. fifty seven thousand seven hundred ninety one trades across ten bots this month. top three by monthly return. assay-paper at plus eleven point three percent. paper pf two point nine four. max drawdown negative zero point six percent. one thousand nine hundred sixty one trades. vega29 at plus zero point seven percent. paper pf one point four nine. twenty nine trades. lyra at plus zero point zero percent. paper pf one point six four. sixty eight trades. bottom three. onchain at negative one point two percent. paper pf zero point five nine. drawdown negative two point five percent. vega34 at negative two point three percent. paper pf one point seven four. polymarket at negative twenty four point six percent. paper pf zero point five eight. drawdown negative thirty two point one percent. that last one hurts. polymarket is a reminder that prediction markets are not trading markets. the bots don't care about your feelings.
next week, more dead bots. see you then.
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FalsifyLab Paper DailyBy FalsifyLab