Trading Global Macro Podcast – Ep. 19

In this episode of the Trading Global Macro Podcast, Matt Weller and John Kicklighter break down sentiment as the “third leg of the stool” alongside fundamentals and technicals, and explore how emotions, expectations, and positioning can amplify trends, reversals, and volatility.

They walk through a practical framework for evaluating sentiment indicators, including:

🔷 Why some popular “sentiment” gauges (like CNN’s Fear & Greed Index) may be closer to technical proxies

🔷 The pros and cons of survey-based measures like the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

🔷 The promises, and limitations, of prediction markets (e.g., Kalshi/Polymarket)

🔷 Positioning and leverage indicators like FINRA margin debt and why context matters

🔷 The Commitment of Traders (COT) report and why it’s a favorite for identifying extremes (with timing limitations)

🔷 Retail sentiment tools (like broker positioning data) and how to use them responsibly

🔷 “Interest gauges” such as Google Trends and how AI might help structure unstructured sentiment signals

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