Crossing Thin Ice

Feedback Loops and Tipping Points


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Stability breeds instability. If your model assumes calm continuity, you might be blind to the pile of sand that's about to avalanche. 

Many actuaries and financial modelers rely on recent data and linear trending of assumptions, missing the amplifying loops that can accelerate change to topple entire systems. We discuss what to look for instead. 

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Crossing Thin IceBy Dave Ingram and Max Rudolph

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