Japan's inflation hits a 2026 high and puts the Bank of Japan on track for a September rate hike, while U.S. housing starts post their steepest drop in years. Plus, why Nvidia's earnings next Wednesday could decide the market's direction, and the U.S.-Canada trade deal coming down to the wire.

In this episode:

• Japan headline inflation rate hits highest this year as energy prices bite — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/japan-inflation-iran-war-energy.html

• Economic Watch: U.S. housing starts plummet in July amid elevated rates — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMifEFVX3lxTE1reDBwWGRmT0wxZjFZVTFZZXhNS2ZSbTV5aVJCZkdYYzEteXNFM0J3MldhUWNCb3h3VUxTa1RyT1NoRkQ0bmlMZ1FfWVFBNmxCQk43ck9mbHpqdDU1NDl2YlJxUDdLdVR2WlVobkF3N2dCQXRidG9CNHJaS00?oc=5

• Nvidia earnings could rescue a stalled-out stock market — if the AI chip maker breaks this trend — https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nvidia-earnings-could-rescue-a-stalling-stock-market-if-the-ai-chip-maker-breaks-this-trend-9b6504bc?mod=mw_rss_topstories

• U.S., Canada near final trade deal as Trump tariff deadline looms — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/21/trump-canada-tariffs-trade-deal-deadline.html

The July Fed minutes show officials open to hiking rates if inflation stays hot, even as Trump renews his push for cuts and the national debt crosses $40 trillion. Plus, why Walmart shares fell despite raised guidance.

In this episode:

• Fed minutes show officials ready to hike rates if inflation remains elevated — [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/fed-minutes-july-2026-officials-saw-need-for-rate-hike-if-inflation-doesnt-cool.html)

• Trump renews pressure on Fed for rate cuts, calls current costs 'ridiculous' — [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/trump-bemoans-fed-interest-rate-policy-says-us-should-be-paying-much-less.html)

• U.S. debt hits $40 trillion as Treasury struggles to contain surging bond yields — [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/us-government-debt-passes-40-trillion-mark-for-the-first-time.html)

• Walmart stock drops on sales miss despite raising full-year outlook — [cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/walmart-wmt-q2-2027-earnings.html)

The UAE severs trade with Iran after a missile strike, sending oil and safe-haven flows into motion, while the U.S. Treasury doubles debt buybacks to calm a jittery bond market. Plus: Moderna and Merck's melanoma vaccine data sends the stock soaring, Google eyes a $12.2 billion stake in Marvell's custom chips, and India's central bank signals hikes are coming.

In this episode:

• UAE severs trade with Iran after reported missile strike — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz.html

• Treasury doubles debt buybacks as Bessent moves to steady bond market — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/treasury-announces-upscaled-buyback-operation-for-longer-term-debt-sending-yields-lower.html

• Moderna, Merck cancer vaccine shows promise in late-stage trial; Moderna stock soars 90% — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/19/moderna-merck-cancer-vaccine-shows-initial-late-stage-melanoma-data.html

• Marvell gives Google option to buy $12.2 billion stake in custom chip deal — https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/marvell-grants-google-12-2-123812695.html

• India rate panel signals impending hikes, eyes inflation path to gauge timing — https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/india-rate-panel-signals-impending-122914248.html

A surprise jobs miss and cooler wholesale inflation have traders betting the Fed holds rates in September, sending stocks to record highs even as 30-year Treasury yields sat at 19-year highs earlier in the week. Plus, Russia's state development bank fires its chief economist after he warned Moscow is losing the economic war of attrition.

In this episode:

• Fed may hold rates steady as cooling inflation and weak jobs data reduce hike odds — https://finance-commerce.com/2026/08/fed-interest-rates-inflation-jobs-outlook/

• U.S. stocks rally to record highs as inflation cools and oil prices drop — https://apnews.com/article/stock-markets-ai-semiconductors-fed-energy-3a23f22469cd0e0062f711096906525c

• Russia fires top economist after he warned the country is losing an economic 'war of attrition' — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/ukraine-war-russia-economy-klepach.html

• 30-year Treasury yield tops 5.33%, a new 19-year high on inflation and spending concerns — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/treasury-yields-.html

Fed rate hike odds for September plunge to roughly 30% after a shock jobs loss, sending the dollar to a two-month low ahead of Wednesday's FOMC minutes — plus why futures still price in a year-end hike, and fresh signs China's economy is losing steam.

In this episode:

• September Fed Rate Hike Odds Plunge as Inflation and Jobs Data Cool — https://www.top1markets.com/news/september-fed-rate-hike-odds

• Fed Minutes to Offer Outdated but Insightful Look at Internal Debate — https://www.top1markets.com/news/september-fed-rate-hike-odds

• Markets Still Price in Year-End Fed Hike Despite Recent Data Softness — https://finance-commerce.com/2026/08/fed-interest-rates-inflation-jobs-outlook/

• Dollar Slips to Multi-Month Low as Rate Hike Bets Fade — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/currencies/articles/yen-edges-traders-push-back-004148952.html

• China's Economy Slows Further in July as Retail Sales, Investment Weaken — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/17/china-economy-sales-investment-july-.html

Soft inflation data has traders leaning toward a Fed hold in September, even as a surprise drop in July retail sales adds to the cooling-economy narrative. Plus, Applied Materials shares slide on weak guidance despite beating earnings, and global equity funds notch a 12th straight week of inflows.

In this episode:

• Cooler inflation data may force Warsh's divided Fed to hold the line on rates — https://reuters.com/business/cooler-inflation-data-may-force-warshs-divided-fed-hold-line-rates-2026-08-14

• US retail sales post first decline in nine months in July — https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/us-retail-sales-unexpectedly-fall-123738457.html

• Applied Materials shares fall on guidance and margin concerns — https://www.marketwatch.com/story/applied-materials-shares-are-down-on-elevated-expectations-heres-why-analysts-say-its-time-to-buy-bd34dd54?mod=mw_rss_topstories

• Global equity funds extend inflow streak as earnings optimism and reduced rate-hike bets lift sentiment — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxQaHdwdGdTdWxKVTJleUJfTEpnS0dNcEMzMENrX1RMRWx2Y1FvaTd5NzFrMW8tNXlvVDdEaVhmd0Q3dHBVSlZYNE5OZm8wcHBkSVduMWRLNHM1R1YtRWNDdkJGWWtTMkVOTWZZc1RZdzRIRlJVeW9HaTM1ejVsQ3NwcnFn?oc=5

A surprisingly flat Producer Price Index report boosts hopes for a September rate cut, but Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack's dissent shows the inflation fight isn't settled. Plus, Databricks hits a $190 billion valuation, and the U.S. budget deficit posts its biggest July shortfall since 2021.

In this episode:

• Wholesale prices were flat in July, below expectations for 0.2% increase — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/13/wholesale-prices-were-flat-in-july-below-expectations-for-0point2percent-increase.html

• Fed should raise rates to restrain growth and inflation, Hammack says — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMitAFBVV95cUxNVHBQbGpaRk5FcmRfWTlhRmNHeFJiWlpOY2pyY25qdzFka19seGhUU29vMWlvVkxzdW1oMUtYVjN0bU1WNzBsRzZxOS1BLWdRRXVPdDdBdGdPVFRSU2dMZWtXbHZQcmZHTFdhQVU1RXNBYVVyZUdoTjE1RmluSXRxUUpkQXFqUkRXR0RHZ3Fxakh4dEJYY0FUM2toSTNyMFlCc3VpTHlCVTZUbGMtZGZFN0hkVG8?oc=5

• Databricks wraps $5 billion funding round at $190 billion valuation — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/13/databricks-funding-round-190-billion-valuation.html

• U.S. budget deficit surged in July to highest level since March 2021 — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/us-budget-deficit-surged-in-july-to-highest-level-since-march-2021.html

July CPI cools to 3.4% and eases pressure on the Fed, sending the S&P 500 to fresh record highs on blowout AI earnings from Palantir, CoreWeave and Nebius, while mortgage rates finally stop climbing.

In this episode:

• U.S. inflation cools to 3.4% in July, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/cpi-inflation-report-july-2026.html

• Wall Street rallies to record highs as AI earnings boost tech and rate-hike bets fade — https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-wall-st-gains-ai-earnings-lift-tech-inflation-data-supports-rate-hold-bets-2026-08-12/

• AI infrastructure stocks surge as CoreWeave and Nebius report upbeat earnings — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/coreweave-q2-earnings-ai-demand.html

• Mortgage rates stabilize as cooling inflation eases financial conditions — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/mortgage-rates-finally-stop-rising-causing-demand-to-trickle-back-.html

A shock 23,000-job loss in July sends gold to a seven-week high near $4,400 and slashes September Fed hike odds, while the Trump administration's escalating fight with Chair Jerome Powell and a twisting Treasury yield curve complicate the rate outlook ahead of this week's CPI test for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

In this episode:

• Gold steadies after scaling two-month high as weak jobs data slashes September Fed hike expectations — https://fazen.markets/en/gold-hits-two-month-high-dollar4400-ahead-us-inflation-cpi-ppi

• Trump reopens Fed battle at critical time for bond markets — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivAFBVV95cUxOTnZ5dmxPWUFBMkpfUEoydUthWTYtV055RWZKTC1UUnp4aHFabmNWMC1GaDZfWGpRWFFabmxTZFNPWmJ1c1BKRHpTNmpoR2Zad19XSGgxanptOE0wVnJHcnEwN3c0bkY0azdxUFZYUDUtLU44Y0dTUkc3Z1I0OWdWalZFMHNpbDl1a3hYWm9kS08yVjgwWkI5Q2NjVEJvOVE5SmVqa21pMXA1eGxLSjFXVGZpZF9MaEFnOFpXMw

• US yield curve twists expose Trump's and Bessent's rate dilemma as markets price out Fed hikes — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxQSVBHc1pKbnlleERzenJPUFlWUl9qdGQ0Mi1qNk9sSWRxVmdUaGxDMmtmVzBzSkVVZTM0cVFjVU1MbzhnM1lTV040SU1yTGtZTDRaWDBsSWZuN2Rodlg5M3c0NGlKc2ZlenRPdlJfTU9pbndXWG1Ra3BjVmhOZ0diX25YMDFncFhpMXI3emNlbWhobnNwRWpYRzJqaVlsaW03aHVDbU5LeXpBaXZSaGo1ZmVqU1Bkeno4LVlMbkR3d1d3b0kz

• Inflation reports this week could test Warsh's tough talk on Fed policy — https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMioAFBVV95cUxOTTd1ZUE0ajFvVXlDSENJcExxWVpFSlBJWXkzSmF5X1N1OFlJbU9yNFBZUnM1dXk5R1VaaEp0SlNOSlMya0hYcFI4VVd4LTM5ZmZGMDNIVi04SmhVMi1fOFdLc2xIdjhCRUlTc0U3Uk1JNDZxNGxjREoxZk5LeEd5RE9FYlFGQlRuTFRwZGJ5bTM5ZnFkcFFtRzVZZXFqcHRx

Berkshire Hathaway breaks a 14-quarter selling streak and starts deploying its nearly $400 billion cash pile, TSMC's sales jump 45% on AI demand, Intel plans a $15 billion stock offering to fund its AI push, and rising Iran tensions push oil prices higher as the Strait of Hormuz standoff drags on.

In this episode:

• Berkshire Hathaway ends 14-quarter selling streak, starts spending massive cash pile — https://www.investors.com/news/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-buybacks-cash-hoard-warren-buffett/

• TSMC sales surge 45% on AI demand, boosting semiconductor sector — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/tsmc-revenue-surge-ai-chip-big-tech.html

• Intel plans $15 billion stock offering to fund AI investments — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/intel-intc-stock-offering-ai.html

• Trump shifts to economic pressure on Iran as Strait of Hormuz tensions rise — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/us-iran-war-trump-hormuz-oman-ships-blockade-shipping.html