Another year, another fool or forecaster report. 

In this episode, we’ve gathered data and put together a bank scorecard - which banks did a good (or foolish) job of forecasting the property market? Which ones are the most reliable? Is 2022 the year to make a property move? 
Listen in on our discussion on authority bias, world events that affected the property market forecasts, holding bank economists accountable, and heaps more!
If you enjoyed the show, do like, rate, subscribe, and share us on social media and if you have your own questions you need clarity on, email us at questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au!
See you in the episode!


Episode Highlights:

Looking back at bank records [01:35]
Authority bias: Why we assume “experts” are right [06:52] 
World events and factors that affected market forecasts in 2022 [10:34]
Which “experts” should you rely on? [13:04]
The correlation between house prices and interest rates [16:48]
The dangers of making forecasts on a macro level [19:47]
Is it possible to predict risk? [23:54]
How COVID changed the real estate market [26:02]
Is 2022 the time to make a property move? [28:32]
Are apartment investments compromised? [33:32] 
Holding bank economists accountable [35:58] 
Should you base your property buying decisions on forecasts? [39:26]

 
Links from the Show:

Fool or Forecaster Report 2022
Finder RBA Cash Survey
CoreLogic Home Value Index
Scope Economic Survey
Will Higher Interest Rates Cause Property Prices To Fall? 

 
Connect with Us:

Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://linktr.ee/veronicamorgan
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? www.wealthful.com.au
Work with Chris: hello@wealthful.com.au 
Send in your questions to: questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
 

Find this episode on our website:
https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/222 


If you’ve enjoyed this episode, don’t forget to like, share, rate and subscribe for more! See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fool or Forecaster 2022: Bank Scorecard

Who's really in control when you buy a property?

The Elephant In The Room is where the things that no one wants to talk about, actually get talked about.  

Veronica Morgan, real estate agent, buyers agent and co-host of Foxtel’s Location Location Location Australia & Chris Bates, financial planner, mortgage broker and wealth coach have joined forces to find out what’s really going on in the world of real estate.

Veronica and Chris talk to property owners and buyers every day in their respective lines of business. They’ve observed a wide spectrum of confidence in people’s decision making ability when buying and selling property, often to the detriment of the individuals concerned. They are both fascinated by consumer behaviour and together they’re going to uncover who’s really making the decisions when you buy a property.

In each episode they get into the psyche of buyers, agents, auctioneers and other industry experts to learn the truth about how buyers are influenced and why they do the things they do. In every episode you’ll learn from the mistakes of a “property dumbo” as well as Chris & Veronica’s “elephant rider bootcamp” training session.

The plan? This property podcast has been created to help us all make better property decisions!

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News

Are you curious about the hidden forces driving Brisbane’s property boom? What impact is the upcoming Olympics having on the property market, and is the construction for the games draining resources from other sectors? Beyond these questions, what else could be behind this sustained period of rapidly rising property prices, and is there any sign of a slowdown on the horizon?
Today, we delve into the dynamics at play with Meighan Wells from Property Pursuit. With over 20 years of experience, Meighan offers unparalleled insights into what’s happening on the ground in the Queensland capital. We explore the impact of the upcoming Olympics on Brisbane’s real estate and ask whether the hype around the games is really pushing property prices up? Meighan sheds light on how these dynamics are shaping the current market and what prospective buyers should be aware of.
Beyond the Olympic effect, we examine other factors contributing to Brisbane’s rapid property price growth. Are there deeper, less obvious influences at play?
Tune in to gain a comprehensive understanding of Brisbane’s property landscape and get expert advice from one of the city’s most seasoned professionals. Let's get started!
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
01:07 - Who is Meighan Wells?
01:48 - What are the latest trends in Brisbane’s real estate market?
05:18 - How has Brisbane’s real estate market changed since 2020
09:32 - What are the reasons behind the shift towards unit living in Brisbane?
13:54 - How is the tightening of borrowing capacity affecting buyer behaviour in Brisbane?
17:33 - Are buyers' desirability of suburbs shifting due to return-to-work changes?
25:45 - What is the current situation regarding rental availability and demand in Brisbane?
30:50 - How does the trend of multi-generational living affect property ownership patterns?
34:38 - What strategies are first-time home buyers employing to enter the market?
36:33 - What differences exist in buyer behaviour in Brisbane?
41:14 - Data on the nature of property transactions in Brisbane,
42:35 - Is the Olympics truly affecting Brisbane’s property market?
47:58 - How does Brisbane's cultural scene stack up against other cities for expatriates?
50:21 - Meighan Wells’ property dumbo
About Our Guest:
Meighan Wells is the Principal of Property Pursuit, co-founder of the Home Buyer Academy, and co-presenter of Your First Home Buyer Guide Podcast. She developed the REIQ course Acting as a Buyer’s Agent and was the Chairman of the REIQ Buyers’ Agent Chapter. In 2010, she was named REIQ Buyers Agent of the Year for the third consecutive year. A recognized expert on the Queensland property market, Meighan is frequently featured in major media outlets like The Financial Review and Realestate.com.au.
Connect with Meighan Wells:

LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/meighanwells/
Property Pursuit Website https://propertypursuit.com.au/
Home Buyer Academy https://homebuyeracademy.com.au/
Facebook https://www.facebook.com/MeighanPropertyPursuit/

Resources:

Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au
Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au

Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719
Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Hidden Forces Behind Brisbane’s Property Boom

Could increasing housing supply alone effectively address our current affordability challenges, or is the housing crisis more accurately characterised as just a recurring issue with a new label?
In this episode, we sit down with Dr. Cameron Murray, Chief Economist at Fresh Economic Thinking who specialises in property and urban development. We dive into the question of whether the term "crisis" accurately captures the challenges of the housing market, or if it's a situation we've already faced before under different names.
Dr. Murray's new book, "The Great Housing Hijack," takes a critical look at the misconceptions driving up prices for both renters and buyers. We discuss whether simply building more houses is the key to solving the problem, or if there are deeper issues at play that need to be addressed.
We've included a lot of relevant topics in this conversation including zoning changes and alternative solutions to the housing crisis, so tune in to get a clearer picture of the complex issues surrounding these property market issues.
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
01:14 - Who is Dr. Cameron Murray?
02:03 - What motivated Cameron to write the book “The Great Housing Hijack”?
06:06 - How do market equilibria affect the perception of a housing crisis?
14:32 - Why zoning changes won’t immediately create a development boom
17:14 - Who can assist with funding for housing development?
23:24 - Why Cameron disagrees with those who cite Auckland as proof that rezoning works
28:23 - Analysing the interplay between human behaviour and housing market trends
34:36 - Cameron shares his thoughts around NIMBY-ism
38:52 - Assessing factors that could stall long-term housing trends
46:24 - Why is the assumption that supply alone can solve the housing crisis flawed?
51:13 - Should public housing be considered as a potential solution for affordability issues?
55:57 - The importance of government action in ensuring access to affordable housing for all
59:29 - Potential strategies for government intervention to address housing affordability issues
1:01:13 - Cameron Murray’s property dumbo
About Our Guest:
Dr. Cameron Murray - Chief Economist at Fresh Economic Thinking who is a leading voice in Australia's housing conversations. He recently authored the book "The Great Housing Hijack." With experience as both a renter, homeowner, and landlord, as well as in property development, Dr. Murray brings a practical understanding to his analysis of housing issues.
Connect with Cameron Murray:

Website https://www.fresheconomicthinking.com/
LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/cameron-murray-39b63017/
Facebook https://www.facebook.com/fresheconomicthinking/

Resources mentioned in this episode:

The Great Housing Hijack: The Hoaxes and Myths Keeping Prices High for Renters and Buyers in Australia https://www.amazon.com.au/Great-Housing-Hijack-keeping-Australia/dp/176147085X

Resources:

Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast - questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au
Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au

Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719
Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is Increased Housing Supply the Real Solution to this Housing Crisis?

In this month's Suburb Trends report for May 2024, we're diving deep into the world of property investment, exploring a critical issue that every investor should be aware of: false positives in property data.
With the property market experiencing upward pressure on prices due to low supply, investors risk being misled by appearances, just like the allure of a dimly lit nightclub before the lights come on. Without the ability to distinguish between promising investments and pitfalls, investors may find themselves making pretty costly decisions based on misleading data.
To shed light on this topic, Kent Lardner joins us to discuss strategies that will help in discerning between genuine opportunities and false positives. Together, we'll explore strategies for evaluating property data, spotting red flags, and making better investment decisions even in the midst of inflated markets.
This is the beer goggles and property episode! Tune in to learn how to spot false positives in property data.
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
00:56 - How the "lights-on" moment aims to reveal hidden truths in property investments
03:49 - How can one mitigate the impact of external factors on property market analysis?
05:33 - What core factors should owner-occupiers prioritise when assessing property options?
09:35 - Is the current trend of investors targeting affordable properties sustainable?
14:18 - How can market players anticipate and respond to potential downturn scenarios?
19:01 - What are the real factors behind the increase in housing costs
21:03 - How are affordability ratios and wealth interconnected in suburban markets?
25:01 - The importance of macro and micro-level data when considering property investments
29:24 - Key factors influencing investment decisions in the real estate market
31:57 - Is there a risk of social unrest due to housing inequality?
37:26 - What are the current rental housing challenges in Melbourne and Sydney?
47:34 - What are the implications of the Docklands case study for urban development?
About Kent Lardner:
Kent Lardner is an expert data science and business leader with 30+ years of experience at leading companies like JLL, CoreLogic, and General Electric. He has led teams of 5 to 200 people across Australia and China, driven by his passion for high-growth digital businesses. Kent is also the founder of Suburbtrends, a leading property research firm trusted by major names in Australian property and featured in mainstream media.
Connect with Kent Lardner:

Kent Lardner’s LinkedIn: https://au.linkedin.com/in/kentlardner
Kent Lardner’s Website: https://suburbtrends.com/

Resources:

Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au
Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au

Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719
Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Suburb Trends May 2024: How to Spot False Positives in Property Data

As Australia grapples with the ambitious challenge of constructing 1.2 million new dwellings in the next five years, we aim to answer the pressing question: Is this target attainable?
We talk about the implications of this challenge, including the need to address housing pressure and determine suitable locations for new developments. Moreover, we discuss the potential impacts of immigration policies on housing demand and supply dynamics.
Today's guest is Peter Tulip, Chief Economist at the Centre for Independent Studies whose expertise in housing and monetary policies, coupled with his advocacy for high-density living, underscores his credibility as a leading voice in the field, earning him the distinction of Australia’s oldest YIMBY.
Join us in this episode as we dissect these complex issues and brainstorm innovative solutions. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to be a part of the conversation shaping Australia’s housing future and urban development.
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
00:58 - Who is Peter Tulip?
01:31 - What is the goal of the National Cabinet's housing initiative?
07:18 - What are the challenges associated with this housing initiative?
12:41 - Peter's insights on the heritage aspect of rezoning
16:09 - Primary challenges faced by developers in densely populated urban areas
20:24 - How rezoning and redevelopment could potentially affect property values
27:17 - Peter’s thoughts on RBA's current stance on inflation
35:58 - Considerations to take into account in determining sustainable immigration levels
40:53 - Is reducing student immigration an effective strategy to alleviate housing pressure?
42:50 - Are there tax policies that can be leveraged to incentivise increased housing supply?
46:35 - What are the potential impacts of increased housing supply on property values?
50:07 - Is there a need for an upzoning tax to fund public services and infrastructure upgrades?
55:33 - Peter Tulip’s property dumbo
About Our Guest:
Peter Tulip has been Chief Economist at the Centre for Independent Studies since 2020. From 2011 to 2020 he was Senior Research Manager at the Reserve Bank of Australia. Before that he worked at the US Federal Reserve Board, the OECD and the Commonwealth Treasury. His research has been published in numerous international academic journals. His recent work focuses on Australian housing policy.  He has a PhD from the University of Pennsylvania.
Connect with Peter Tulip:

Visit their website: www.cis.org.au/experts/research-scholars/peter-tulip
Follow Peter on Twitter: https://twitter.com/peter_tulip
Send an email to ptulip@cis.org.au

Resources:

Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au
Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au

Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719
Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is Australia’s 1.2M Housing Target Attainable in the Next 5 Years?

With property values stagnant amidst a backdrop of soaring prices in other cities, we explore the factors contributing to Melbourne's unique market behaviour. Could the city's prolonged lockdowns have played a significant role in shaping its property landscape? What does the future hold for buyers and sellers? Meanwhile, rising rents beg the question: how does this affect the apartment market?
Today, Jarrod McCabe from Wakelin Property Advisory joins us to unpack these pressing questions. With more than two decades in the property industry – across valuations and investment advisory – Jarrod's expert analysis and insights aim to offer clarity on Melbourne's current property landscape. What could be the culprit behind Melbourne’s unusual property market behaviour?
Tune in to learn all about Melbourne's property market and discover what's coming up next. This episode gives you helpful info you wouldn't want to miss. So hit that play button and let's dive in!
Episode Highlights:
00:00 - Introduction
01:04 - Who is Jarrod McCabe?
01:22 - Trends observed in Melbourne's property market since the onset of COVID-19
02:44 - The recent trends in Melbourne's property market according to CoreLogic data
04:27 - How has the return to work influenced residential preferences in Melbourne?
06:14 - The shift in investor behaviour amidst rising rents and the rental crisis
10:57 - How does Melbourne's urban lifestyle impact property demand and rental dynamics?
14:25 - The impact of recent changes in land tax legislation on property investment behaviour
21:38 - Key factors contributing to Melbourne's resilience as a property investment destination
23:37 - What is happening with the population of Melbourne?
28:30 - Factors contributing to the disparity in property values between Melbourne and Sydney
30:44 - Can investors still find property investments in Melbourne with a budget of $1M?
35:22 - How Melbourne's property market responds to changing dynamics in house prices
39:08 - Planning controls evolving in suburban areas surrounding Melbourne's city center
42:45 - Jarrod McCabe’s property dumbo
45:33 - What's the impact of super Saturdays on Melbourne's clearance rate?
About Our Guest:
Jarrod McCabe, a property industry veteran with over two decades of experience, excels in valuations and investment advisory. His expertise in Melbourne's inner suburban market, combined with sharp negotiation skills, ensures successful outcomes for clients. As property team manager, Jarrod prioritizes understanding client needs while mentoring colleagues. Since completing his Bachelor of Business (Property) in 2000, he has risen to the role of Director at Wakelin Property Advisory, also serving as an active property educator through webinars, seminars, and media contributions.
Connect with Jarrod McCabe:

LinkedIn https://linkedin.com/in/jarrod-mccabe-81333034/
Website https://wakelin.com.au/
Podcast https://wakelin.com.au/education/podcasts/

Resources:

Visit our website https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au
If you have any questions or would like to be featured on our show, contact us at: The Elephant in the Room Property Podcast questions@theelephantintheroom.com.au
Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? https://www.gooddeeds.com.au
Work with Veronica: https://www.veronicamorgan.com.au
Looking for a Mortgage Broker? https://www.blusk.au
Work with Chris: hello@blusk.au

Enjoyed the podcast? Don't miss out on what's yet to come! Hit that subscription button, spread the word and join us for more insightful discussions in real estate. Your journey starts now!

Subscribe on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theelephantintheroom-podcast
Subscribe on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ph/podcast/the-elephant-in-the-room-property-podcast/id1384822719
Subscribe on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/3Ge1626dgnmK0RyKPcXjP0?si=26cde394fa854765
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Fool or Forecaster 2022: Bank Scorecard

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