<p class="p1">Please read important disclosures at <a href= "http://www.ensemblecapital.com/holdings">www.ensemblecapital.com/holdings</a>. Base rates are useful forecasting tools, but there are important problems with base rates that investors must keep in mind.</p>

Please read important disclosures at www.ensemblecapital.com/holdings. Base rates are useful forecasting tools, but there are important problems with base rates that investors must keep in mind.

<p>Please read important disclosures at <a href="http://www.ensemblecapital.com/holdings" rel="noopener noreferrer">www.ensemblecapital.com/holdings</a>. Base rates are useful forecasting tools, but there are important problems with base rates that investors must keep in mind.</p>

Forecasting Growth Part III-Problems with Base Rates

Intrinsic Investing is a publication of Ensemble Capital Management, LLC. Ensemble Capital is a registered investment advisor located in San Francisco, CA. Since 1997, Ensemble Capital has been building focused portfolios to help clients preserve their success and enhance their future. The firm currently manages money on behalf of private clients, charitable institutions, and a publicly-traded mutual fund.

Our goal for Intrinsic Investing is for it to be one of the ways that we communicate our thinking to clients and the general public. We believe that investing is an iterative process and we know of no better way to test our own thinking than to share it with others. We encourage readers to send us their thoughts about our posts or investing in general. You can find our contact information, a post defining "intrinsic investing" and the concept of "intrinsic value", and a post explaining the motivation for content at https://intrinsicinvesting.com/

Please read important disclosures at www.ensemblecapital.com/holdings.

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Intrinsic Investing is a publication of Ensemble Capital Management, LLC. Ensemble Capital is a registered investment advisor located in San Francisco, CA. Since 1997, Ensemble Capital has been building focused portfolios to help clients preserve their success and enhance their future. The firm currently manages money on behalf of private clients, charitable institutions, and a publicly-traded mutual fund. Our goal for Intrinsic Investing is for it to be one of the ways that we communicate our thinking to clients and the general public. We believe that investing is an iterative process and we know of no better way to test our own thinking than to share it with others. We encourage readers to send us their thoughts about our posts or investing in general. You can find our contact information, a post defining "intrinsic investing" and the concept of "intrinsic value", and a post explaining the motivation for content at https://intrinsicinvesting.com/ Please read important disclosures at www.ensemblecapital.com/holdings.

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Forecasting Growth Part III-Problems with Base Rates

Forecasting Growth Part III-Problems with Base Rates