In the future, you will own nothing, and you will be happy.

I can’t remember when I first heard this line in the lead up to Canada’s election, but before long, I kept hearing it on repeat as proof that Liberal candidate Mark Carney was part of a shadowy globalist cabal intent on bringing tyranny to Canada.

After hearing it enough times, I felt the need to understand where this was even coming from, as it seemed like an unlikely quote from an ex-Goldman-Sachs/ex-central banker.

Goal17 is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

The source, in case you haven’t heard this one, was a foresight essay written by Danish MP Ida Auken that was published on the website of the World Economic Forum. The post has been taken down by the Forum by now, likely because of the odd controversy surrounding it, but you can find an archive of it here. The point of the essay, which is really more of a fictional vignette, was to take the vague concept of “the sharing economy” and to explore what it would look like if the concept were to be expanded to its fullest extent.

Now, to my knowledge, Carney and Auken don’t even know each other (though maybe they do, who knows). The implication for those who were spreading this conspiracy, however, was that this extreme version of the sharing economy in which nobody owns anything is the official position and secret intention of the World Economic Forum (though I’m not sure why they would publish secret plans on their website) and, because the WEF “controls” leaders around the world, and Carney has attended WEF events, that this essay represents his secret plan for Canada.

This conspiracy has gotten enough traction, clearly, that the WEF has finally just pulled the essay down from their website, which is a shame, because it is rather well done as a thought experiment.

Now as we enter the final stretch of the election campaign, another piece of foresight work is making the rounds, this time, from Policy Horizons Canada. Policy Horizons is the home of foresight in the Canadian Federal government, and the piece in question is called “Future Lives: Social Mobility in Question”.

As the published piece states, in a manner that will be familiar to anyone who has done foresight work:

The scenario below paints a picture of Canada in 2040 in which most Canadians find themselves stuck in the socioeconomic conditions of their birth and many face the very real possibility of downward social mobility.

Now, importantly, as though it needs other be said, the report clearly states that:

While this is neither the desired nor the preferred future, Policy Horizons’ strategic foresight suggests it is plausible. Thinking about future scenarios helps decision-makers understand some of the forces already influencing their policy environment. It can also help them test the future readiness of assumptions built into today’s policies and programs. Finally, it helps identify opportunities to take decisions today that may benefit Canada in the future.

The Problem

The Conservative candidate, Pierre Poilievre, has quoted this paper as a clear projection of a terrifying and dystopian future, made all the more damning because it is “predicted” by the government itself. The paper is now making the rounds on social media as proof that the incumbent Liberal party is intent on the economic enslavement and impoverishment of the Canadian people.

What has happened in both cases is a deliberate misinterpretation of the purpose of the papers in order to provide evidence of a conspiracy. When weaponized in this way, the very elements that give good foresight work its power become a liability.

Forecasting vs. Foresight vs. Policy Direction

Though it shouldn’t really need to be said, these are very different types of work, with a very different intent. Forecasting is the projection of quantitative data into the future to make predictions, like weather forecasting, election forecasting and economic forecasting. It is a discipline of data analysis that identifies trends in past and present data to understand where things are going in the future. It is the business of identifying probable or likely futures.

Foresight might draw from forecasts and quantitative trends, but also has a much more qualitative, speculative flavour to it. It uses scenarios, or narratives, to flesh out what possible futures might look like under certain circumstances. Foresight is a critical component of strategy and decision making processes, because it forces decision makers to consider the full consequences of present decisions and trends when extended into the future, and is often used to force consideration of future possibilities. So while forecasting is all about probable futures, foresight is more about possible futures. While some might be wildly speculative, foresight groups like Policy Horizons a likely to skew more towards plausible future scenarios.

Now, importantly, neither forecasting nor foresight are meant to present what is desirable. That is to say, neither is in the business of making a recommendation. Their purpose, in a decision making process, is to flesh out all the aspects and implications of a possible future so that those making decisions can evaluate whether that future is desirable. If it isn’t, they can then craft a strategy for how to avoid that future. If it is desirable, they can make decisions that they think will make that future outcome more likely.

Policy direction, or policy recommendations, would be outlines of the strategies required to achieve certain outcomes. It’s the work that might come after a forecasting or foresight exercise.

Futures Literacy

Organizations like UNESCO have, for some time, been promoting the idea of “Futures Literacy”, or the idea of improving education around the importance of future considerations in planning and strategy. This would likely be a great addition to high school civics classes, as the spread of conspiracies online using foresight materials suggests a general misunderstanding of what these scenarios are, what they are for, and why they exist.

For my part, foresight is an important part of my practice in designing decision making, especially when the planning environment is as chaotic as it is now. Imagining a set of possibilities for the future, to me, is a critical component of any strategic process, because the context in the future might be very different that the one you are in now. I also use scenarios and foresight to create the space in a decision making process to consider the ethical dimensions of their current decisions when projected into the future or when brought to scale. “If we do this, that is likely to happen. Is that what we want?”

The Chill

What troubles me is that if foresight work is increasingly used as the basis for conspiracy theories, it might put a chill on futures work in decision making while also making organizations less likely to share the foresight work that they have done. I have already had one foresight exercise I have done “leaked” as proof of nefarious play, when in fact I had used it as a way of spurring a conversation on ethics. While the work wasn’t classified, when it was shared, it was presented as if it was, with the scenarios presented as intended outcomes, rather than the ethical dilemmas they were intended to be.

As we’ve seen above, the WEF pulled down Auken’s paper, despite the fact that it is thought-provoking, because the controversy and conspiracy have made it into a distraction.

But I think that given that this trend is being fuelled by a major-party leader in a G7 country should be a wakeup call that critical tools in good decision making and policy making are under attack. Consistent explanations in media about what these reports are, and what they are not, should be the norm, and effective messaging to dissuade leaders from disingenuous references needs to enter the discourse. And futures literacy? I think it’s now more important than ever.

Get full access to Goal17 at goal17.substack.com/subscribe