Restarting: I need a way to keep track of important things than I have read, plus ideas and reactions that I have had. Trying to do it Friday mornings seems a good thing to try. And by now there is quite a backlog. January 20, just before my start-of-the-semester & Trump-inauguration schedule collapse, when I started the serious dropping of eggs on the floor, was the last time I did a “Weekly Briefly Noted”, after all:So I continue to catch up, here with the first half of February. What did I write, and what did I find it important enough as I read it to make a SubStack Note about? These:

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SubStack NOTES:\n\nreacting to:\n\nAlex Thomas: ‪’Important. Gosh. The PM [Keith Starmer]: “These crucial days ahead will determine the future security of our continent. As I will say in Paris, peace comes through strength. But the reverse is also true. Weakness leads to war. The UK is ready to play a leading role in accelerating work on security guarantees for Ukraine… £3 billion a year until at least 2030… [and] putting our own troops on the ground if necessary…. The end of this war, when it comes, cannot merely become a temporary pause before Putin attacks again… \n\nSo what commitments come next from France, Germany, and Italy?","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"War & Rumours of War"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Europe tries to begin assembling itself as a great power outside of the framework of the NATO alliance:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Ian Dunt"},{"type":"text","text":": ‘Starmer confirming the UK is willing to put boots on the ground in Ukraine. An immense moment. Hard to overstate how important this is or how impressive it is that he's done it… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:4ap35rus77cg3lzju2v43jxn/post/3lidcyl4ls22y","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:4ap35rus77cg3lzju2v43jxn/post/3lidcyl4ls22y"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"reacting to:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Alex Thomas"},{"type":"text","text":": ‪’Important. Gosh. The PM [Keith Starmer]: “These crucial days ahead will determine the future security of our continent. As I will say in Paris, peace comes through strength. But the reverse is also true. Weakness leads to war. The UK is ready to play a leading role in accelerating work on security guarantees for Ukraine… £3 billion a year until at least 2030… [and] putting our own troops on the ground if necessary…. The end of this war, when it comes, cannot merely become a temporary pause before Putin attacks again… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://bsky.app/profile/alexgathomas.bsky.social/post/3lidcmnraxc24","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://bsky.app/profile/alexgathomas.bsky.social/post/3lidcmnraxc24"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"So what commitments come next from France, Germany, and Italy?"}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":9,"attachments":[{"id":"880f06b9-b1d2-4f9e-ac1b-f4a9c767c9ea","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"https://bsky.app/profile/alexgathomas.bsky.social/post/3lidcmnraxc24","host":"bsky.app","title":"Alex Thomas (@alexgathomas.bsky.social)","description":"Important. Gosh. The PM: “These crucial days ahead will determine the future security of our continent. As I will say in Paris, peace comes through strength. But the reverse is also true. Weakness leads to war.” https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/02/16/sir-keir-starmer-british-troops-ukrain…","image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a1ee7493-8f58-4981-99af-f431cc378c6d_980x1000.jpeg","original_image":"https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:omxdpil26ujygcgfuel3otja/bafkreiehcguzg7d5catan2fjjs535nkw3fch7cma6wsx6jl3msqgyvxb5i@jpeg"},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"> My search engine offered me this, which gives another description: https://web.mit.edu/14.75j/www/lecture%20notes%208.pdf","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"This is from MIT's \"Political Economy & Economic Development\"? Do you know who taught it? The slides say they are based on an early version of David Weil's \"Economic Growth\" ms. project, but I don't know if these are David's or somebody else's..."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"> My search engine offered me this, which gives another description: "},{"type":"text","text":"https://web.mit.edu/14.75j/www/lecture%20notes%208.pdf","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://web.mit.edu/14.75j/www/lecture%20notes%208.pdf"}}]}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":2,"attachments":[{"id":"d5f113b9-16df-439b-bc44-b61713b62b24","type":"post","publication":{"apple_pay_disabled":false,"apex_domain":null,"author_id":16879,"byline_images_enabled":true,"bylines_enabled":true,"chartable_token":null,"community_enabled":true,"copyright":"J. 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data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">\n\n====\n\n# References:\n\nGanz, John. 2025. \"The Last Days of Discourse.\" Unpopular Front, February 11. .\n\nHerf, Jeffrey. 1984. Reactionary Modernism: Technology, Culture, & Politics in Weimar and the Third Reich. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. .\n\nRiley, Dylan. 2010. The Civic Foundations of Fascism in Europe: Italy, Spain, and Romania, 1870–1945. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. .","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Neofascism"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Very much good food for thought in this from John Ganz & Dylan Riley this AM:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"John Ganz"},{"type":"text","text":": The Last Days of Discourse: ‘Dylan Riley’s fascinating… "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The Civic Foundations of Fascism"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"in Europe…. "},{"type":"text","text":"Riley… believes… fascism arose… where there was dense civic association combined with a weak political class…. In contemporary America we have a hollowed-out civic life and an atomized population. But this passage jumped out at me…. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"“Gramsci[‘s]… “Organic Crises”… in which the democratic demands produced by civil society cannot adequately be expressed through existing political institutions…. “Traditional parties… are no longer recognized by their class (or fractions of a class) as its expression”… outstripped by a rapidly developing civil society… [with] skepticism about all forms of political representation…. Fascist movements are well adapted to such situations because they claim to transcend the political… [and] establish a new relationship between the nation and the state… by creating an authoritarian democracy: a regime that claims to represent the people or nation but rejects parliamentary institutional forms…. Fascism must be understood as the result of a political crisis rooted in the combined and uneven development of civil society and hegemony…”. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"We are accustomed to thinking that the Internet and social media platforms are atomizing people and dissolving civic ties, but it’s also binding and associating people in new ways. What if… we understood… social media… as the rapid development of new forms of civil association… [to which] the political elite has trouble adapting? This would explain a great deal of empirical facts of the present situation… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.unpopularfront.news/p/the-last-days-of-discourse","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.unpopularfront.news/p/the-last-days-of-discourse"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"===="}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"# References:"}]},{"type":"bulletList","content":[{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Ganz, John"},{"type":"text","text":". 2025. \"The Last Days of Discourse.\" "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Unpopular Front"},{"type":"text","text":", February 11. <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.unpopularfront.news/p/the-last-days-of-discourse","target":"_blank","rel":"noopener noreferrer nofollow","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.unpopularfront.news/p/the-last-days-of-discourse"},{"type":"text","text":">."}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Herf, Jeffrey"},{"type":"text","text":". 1984. "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Reactionary Modernism: Technology, Culture, & Politics in Weimar and the Third Reich"},{"type":"text","text":". Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://archive.org/details/reactionarymoder0000herf","target":"_new","rel":"noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://archive.org/details/reactionarymoder0000herf"},{"type":"text","text":">."}]}]},{"type":"listItem","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Riley, Dylan"},{"type":"text","text":". 2010. "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"The Civic Foundations of Fascism in Europe: Italy, Spain, and Romania, 1870–1945"},{"type":"text","text":". Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press. <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://archive.org/details/civicfoundations0000rile","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://archive.org/details/civicfoundations0000rile"},{"type":"text","text":">."}]}]}]}]},"restacks":2,"reaction_count":10,"attachments":[{"id":"2872150c-bc82-483c-81ef-96ac9cf048c6","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"https://archive.org/details/civicfoundations0000rile","host":"archive.org","title":"The civic foundations of fascism in Europe : Italy, Spain, and Romania, 1870-1945 : Riley, Dylan J., 1971- : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive","description":"xiii, 258 p. ; 24 cm","image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d9a2ba7f-ecfc-42d0-8c38-3582b012f26a_180x274.jpeg","original_image":"https://archive.org/services/img/civicfoundations0000rile"},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder"> Sam Moyn and Trita Parsi (the latter of the Quincy Institute, the MAGA Pick Me Girl of foreign policy think tank set) think is better than a rules-based order: “Trump is a keen advocate for his own interests. His… transactionalism… enabled him to transcend Washington’s typical moralizing in favor of advancing U.S. interests through engagement…. This “what’s-in-it-for-me” approach to world affairs may enable Trump to jettison Washington’s mythmaking about its coalition-of-the-willing international order…” Hatred of liberalism is a powerful drug, and what junkie wouldn’t prefer foreign policy by the whim of a dementia-addled right wing billionaire?… ","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Life in the Chaos-Monkey Cage"},{"type":"text","text":": Robert Farley observes that the current U.S. régime is what the likes of Samuel Moyn, Trita Parsi, and others of their ilk prefer to not just the Neoliberal Order but, indeed, any form of a Liberal Order as well:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Robert Farlet"},{"type":"text","text":": Our Weekend with Tariffs: ‘It’s worth noting that this is the kind of foreign policy <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2025-01-08/trump-foreign-policy-world-order","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2025-01-08/trump-foreign-policy-world-order"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/"},{"type":"text","text":"> Sam Moyn and Trita Parsi (the latter of the Quincy Institute, the MAGA Pick Me Girl of foreign policy think tank set) think is better than a rules-based order: “Trump is a keen advocate for his own interests. His… transactionalism… enabled him to transcend Washington’s typical moralizing in favor of advancing U.S. interests through engagement…. This “what’s-in-it-for-me” approach to world affairs may enable Trump to jettison Washington’s mythmaking about its coalition-of-the-willing international order…” Hatred of liberalism is a powerful drug, and what junkie wouldn’t prefer foreign policy by the whim of a dementia-addled right wing billionaire?… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/02/our-weekend-with-tariffs?__readwiseLocation=","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/02/our-weekend-with-tariffs?__readwiseLocation="},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":2,"attachments":[{"id":"38689c41-c8dc-4446-bb2e-041d54200e4e","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/02/our-weekend-with-tariffs","host":"lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com","title":"Our Weekend with Tariffs - Lawyers, Guns & Money","description":"Some more thoughts on the Tariff Weekend: In a year, we’ll have a better perspective on what’s going on with the Trump administration’s tariff policy. We may eventually find out whether the most disconcerting story is true, that the administration has no firm understanding of where it is or where i…","image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dc0e690e-cad7-4d38-97c5-52d5d089bf97_1920x2560.jpeg","original_image":"https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/IMG_2858-scaled.jpeg"},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Life in the Chaos-Monkey Cage"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Trump seems to have chosen Canada as his test case to see how big a bully he can be. So I do not understand why Britain and the EU do not realize that they are already in this game. I expected Martin Wolf to call for Britain and the EU to immediately join Canada and Mexico in a TAP—a Trans-Atlantic Partnership, in which all match whatever retaliatory tariffs and restrictions any one of them decides to impose on Trump in response to any of his bullying measures. That is the stable and committed “western alliance” in the current situation. But Wolf does not go there:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Martin Wolf"},{"type":"text","text":": Predictability is the victim of Trump’s tariff threats: ‘An inconsistent US is an unreliable partner — it’s that simple…. The unpredictability of the US affects every aspect of its international relations. Nobody can count on it, be they friend or foe. So, nobody can make plans based on reliable assumptions about how it will behave in future. It is possible that some allies will decide that, although they prefer the US, China is at least more predictable. That would be an insane position for these countries to be in. But it would be the almost inevitable result of Trump’s gangsterish approach to international relations.For the closest allies, such as the UK, the situation is particularly grim. The alliance with the US has been the foundation of its security since 1941…. Is there… a notion of a stable and committed western alliance left? Meanwhile, what are Trump’s victims to do? Chrystia Freeland, former finance minister of Canada, suggests Ottawa should threaten 100 per cent tariffs on Teslas. But as Tim Leunig, a British economist, notes, Trump does not care about Tesla. Canada should instead threaten taxes on exports of oil and electricity. If the US threatens friends, the latter must stand up to it. That is how to deal with bullies… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.ft.com/content/f0970c34-715e-4afb-82ec-30022ec3fb44?__readwiseLocation=For","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.ft.com/content/f0970c34-715e-4afb-82ec-30022ec3fb44?__readwiseLocation=For"}]}]}]},"restacks":2,"reaction_count":6,"attachments":[{"id":"79930e2b-59ec-4bf9-b13b-423b8daef3ba","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"https://www.ft.com/content/f0970c34-715e-4afb-82ec-30022ec3fb44","host":"ft.com","title":"Predictability is the victim of Trump’s tariff threats","description":"An inconsistent US is an unreliable partner — it’s that simple","image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1935611b-8fac-4a54-9368-6f7aa9a804cb_2490x1401.jpeg","original_image":"https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2Fc3a616ab-7147-43ee-b71a-93dfc2dc581c.jpg?source=next-barrier-page"},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">\n\nTo exactly the same extent that Trump does not want to lose by alienating the justices, the justices do not want to lose by alienating the Trumpist Republican base. \n\nThat means that those justices who are primarily not judges but professional Republicans—and that is six of them—will strain every nerve to find some excuse not to issue a court order that Trump would believe he wins with his base by defying. \n\nChief Justice John Roberts showed us who he was in NFIB vs. Sibelius—someone who would issue a lawless decision just so he could tell the Republican base “I didn’t validate ObamaCare: I struck down half of it” and so avoid alienating them. \n\nTime to recall Andrew Marvell’s “Horatian Ode on Cromwell’s Return from Ireland”:\n\nAndrew Marvell: Horatian Ode on Cromwell’s Return from Ireland: ‘Though justice against fate complain,/And plead the ancient rights in vain:/But those do hold or break/As men are strong or weak./Nature, that hateth emptiness,/Allows of penetration less:/And therefore must make room/Where greater spirits come… \n\nThere is a story that in July 1944 Nazi General Rudolf-Christof Freiherr von Gersdorff urged Field Marshall Gunther von Kluge to emulate what Lieutenant-General Johan David Ludwig Graf von Yorck had done in December 1812 at Tauroggen, and immediately take his army group out of the war by concluding an army group-level armistice with the Allies:\n\n“Herr Field Marshal, like all great men of world history, you’re standing before a choice: either to be condemned by history or to enter into history as a savior in a moment of dire need.” Kluge put a hand on his underling’s shoulder. “Gersdorff,” he said, “Field Marshal von Kluge is not a great man”… \n\nOn what evidence does Noah Feldman fantasize that John Roberts is in any sense a great man?","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Journamalism"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Noah Feldman acts really, really stupid:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Noah Feldman"},{"type":"text","text":": Trump Is Testing Our Constitutional System. It’s Doing Fine: "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"‘"},{"type":"text","text":"The president’s flurry of illegal actions have been stopped by the courts. That’s how it is supposed to work. Those taking notice of all this systematic… illegality are understandably concerned that Trump might ignore court orders. That would generally count as a constitutional crisis…. Yet Trump… is unlikely to defy a judicial decision…. The single worst thing he could do to alienate the justices would be to ignore a court order…. The justices[‘]… primary identity comes from their role as interpreters of the Constitution and laws…. They won’t tolerate direct defiance of the authority of the judiciary. Relying on Trump to act rationally might seem like a poor idea. Nevertheless, it’s worth remembering that… [Trump wants] make headlines… [and] serious worries… leads to panic and more headlines… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-04/trump-is-testing-our-constitutional-system-it-s-working-fine?__readwiseLocation=","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-04/trump-is-testing-our-constitutional-system-it-s-working-fine?__readwiseLocation="},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"To exactly the same extent that Trump does not want to lose by alienating the justices, the justices do not want to lose by alienating the Trumpist Republican base. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"That means that those justices who are primarily not judges but professional Republicans—and that is six of them—will strain every nerve to find some excuse not to issue a court order that Trump would believe he wins with his base by defying. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Chief Justice John Roberts showed us who he was in NFIB vs. Sibelius—someone who would issue a lawless decision just so he could tell the Republican base “I didn’t validate ObamaCare: I struck down half of it” and so avoid alienating them. "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Time to recall Andrew Marvell’s “Horatian Ode on Cromwell’s Return from Ireland”:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Andrew Marvell"},{"type":"text","text":": Horatian Ode on Cromwell’s Return from Ireland: ‘Though justice against fate complain,/And plead the ancient rights in vain:/But those do hold or break/As men are strong or weak./Nature, that hateth emptiness,/Allows of penetration less:/And therefore must make room/Where greater spirits come… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/44683/an-horatian-ode-upon-cromwells-return-from-ireland","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/44683/an-horatian-ode-upon-cromwells-return-from-ireland"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"There is a story that in July 1944 Nazi General Rudolf-Christof Freiherr "},{"type":"text","text":"von "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Gersdorff urged Field Marshall Gunther von Kluge to emulate what Lieutenant-General Johan David Ludwig Graf von Yorck had done in December 1812 at Tauroggen, and immediately take his army group out of the war by concluding an army group-level armistice with the Allies:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"“Herr Field Marshal, like all great men of world history, you’re standing before a choice: either to be condemned by history or to enter into history as a savior in a moment of dire need.” Kluge put a hand on his underling’s shoulder. “Gersdorff,” he said, “Field Marshal von Kluge is not a great man”… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700624942/","target":"_blank","rel":"noopener noreferrer nofollow","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700624942/"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"On what evidence does Noah Feldman fantasize that John Roberts is in any sense a great man?"}]}]},"restacks":2,"reaction_count":4,"attachments":[{"id":"a920e960-a0a4-44a9-8827-56305d81d65c","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"https://kansaspress.ku.edu/9780700624942/","host":"kansaspress.ku.edu","title":"The Wehrmacht’s Last Stand","description":"By 1943, the war was lost, and most German officers knew it. 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Krugman","is_personal_mode":false,"like_count":1374,"comment_count":385,"tracking_parameters":{"is_saved":false,"is_seen":true,"post_id":156731607,"post_type":"newsletter","publication_id":277517,"tabId":"home","tabType":"base","max_read_progress":0,"max_audio_progress":0,"max_video_progress":0,"last_seen_at":"2025-02-08T18:46:05.895Z","last_reading_queue_impression_at":"2025-02-08T13:47:02.391Z"},"uuid":"5cdec84c-543c-4af1-aa24-1dc1ec871a6e"},"is_saved":false,"saved_at":null,"is_viewed":true,"read_progress":0,"max_read_progress":0,"audio_progress":0,"max_audio_progress":0,"video_progress":0,"max_video_progress":0,"restacked":false},"postSelection":null,"postSelectionTheme":null,"postImageSelection":null,"clipInfo":null,"mediaClip":null}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">\n\n& then discussing it over coffee with Gabriel M. Unger (i.e., IMHO most of the truly smart ideas in my post are actually more than 50% GMU’s). Here is Tom:\n\nThomas L. Hutcheson (2023-12-16): Comments - I Was on \"Team Transitory\": My Historical Perspective Made Me Smarter: ‘This is just a discussion about when [in 2021-2022] the Fed should have started tightening. I don't think Summers was all that clear about when HE though it should happen. And his message was further muddied by talking about the size of the Biden relief package instead of focusing on the Fed reaction to that and other shocks… \n\nI 100% agree that talking about Biden 2021 reïnsurance stimulative policy against a return to secular stagnation rather than when it would have been appropriate to start taking that reïnsurance off the table greatly confuses things. And I think the most important factor lost in this discussion is how much stronger underlying pressures for investment in America during the Biden years were than anyone—on Team Transitory or Team Persistent—thought remotely likely.\n\nTom has other smart comments in the thread as well. This:\n\nEconomists need to advocate for better economic indicators such as: a) a \"Trillionth\" GDP or GDI securities of various tenors to elitist better market speculation on the economy than stock indices.vb) more intermediate tenor TIPS to elicit speculation on inflation over shorter periods than 5 and 10 yearsvc) wage indices, not unit value of wages indices, to clean out composition effects at the source.vEconomist should be scouring the economy for microeconomic inefficiencies in season and out of season. I suppose they are MORE valuable if those associated with a shock can be identified and removed in real time, mitigating the shock that the Fed is engineering inflation to overcome…\n\n& this on the need for models of the Short-Term Natural Rate of Inflation:\n\nWhether the shock is a negative supply (chain) or positive productivity shock or a positive or negative demand shock (a sudden outburst or collapse of \"animal spirits\") maintaining full employment -- all markets clearing -- requires changes is relative prices. The Fed's role is to facilitate those changes and since so changes may involve prices that cannot fall in absolute terms, the relative price changes will have to result in an average increase in the price level. It needs to engineer enough inflation to permit the relative price changes and no more -- in other words, temporary inflation. What kind of model best enables the Fed to estimate what values of its policy instrument variables will produce that right amount of inflation for how long is up to the Fed and those who can competently second guess it...","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Macroeconomics & Inflation"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"I should have picked this up at the time—more than a year ago. Thomas Hutcheson has very nice remarks about my thoughts after reading Larry Summers:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Larry Summers "},{"type":"text","text":"(2023-12-14): We haven’t nailed the landing yet: ‘Look at underlying inflation rates… some… are still running well above 2 per cent. If inflation is currently at 2 per cent, it’s not clear that it won’t go back up again. And it isn’t clear that the landing has been soft…. Primary credit should be given to the Fed for having acted relatively rapidly to correct its earlier errors…. The Fed in 2022 raised rates very sharply in a way that did not take place during the Vietnam period. So I think that, ironically, if team transitory proves to be vindicated, it will only be because their policy advice was not taken. It will be because the Fed moved strongly enough that [inflation] expectations never became unanchored… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.ft.com/content/59fff67e-b136-4435-89e1-2400b90f4b83","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.ft.com/content/59fff67e-b136-4435-89e1-2400b90f4b83"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"& then discussing it over coffee with Gabriel M. Unger (i.e., IMHO most of the truly smart ideas in my post <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/i-was-on-team-transitory-my-historical","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/i-was-on-team-transitory-my-historical"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"> are actually more than 50% GMU’s). Here is Tom:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Thomas L. Hutcheson"},{"type":"text","text":" (2023-12-16): Comments - I Was on \"Team Transitory\": My Historical Perspective Made Me Smarter: ‘This is just a discussion about when [in 2021-2022] the Fed should have started tightening. I don't think Summers was all that clear about when HE though it should happen. And his message was further muddied by talking about the size of the Biden relief package instead of focusing on the Fed reaction to that and other shocks… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/i-was-on-team-transitory-my-historical/comment/45502251","target":"_blank","rel":"noopener noreferrer nofollow","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/i-was-on-team-transitory-my-historical/comment/45502251"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"I 100% agree that talking about Biden 2021 reïnsurance stimulative policy against a return to secular stagnation rather than when it would have been appropriate to start taking that reïnsurance off the table greatly confuses things. And I think the most important factor lost in this discussion is how much stronger underlying pressures for investment in America during the Biden years were than anyone—on Team Transitory or Team Persistent—thought remotely likely."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Tom has other smart comments in the thread as well. This:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Economists need to advocate for better economic indicators such as: a) a \"Trillionth\" GDP or GDI securities of various tenors to elitist better market speculation on the economy than stock indices.vb) more intermediate tenor TIPS to elicit speculation on inflation over shorter periods than 5 and 10 yearsvc) wage indices, not unit value of wages indices, to clean out composition effects at the source.vEconomist should be scouring the economy for microeconomic inefficiencies in season and out of season. I suppose they are MORE valuable if those associated with a shock can be identified and removed in real time, mitigating the shock that the Fed is engineering inflation to overcome…"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"& this on the need for models of the Short-Term Natural Rate of Inflation:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Whether the shock is a negative supply (chain) or positive productivity shock or a positive or negative demand shock (a sudden outburst or collapse of \"animal spirits\") maintaining full employment -- all markets clearing -- requires changes is relative prices. The Fed's role is to facilitate those changes and since so changes may involve prices that cannot fall in absolute terms, the relative price changes will have to result in an average increase in the price level. It needs to engineer enough inflation to permit the relative price changes and no more -- in other words, temporary inflation. What kind of model best enables the Fed to estimate what values of its policy instrument variables will produce that right amount of inflation for how long is up to the Fed and those who can competently second guess it..."}]}]}]},"restacks":1,"reaction_count":0,"attachments":[{"id":"139b45cb-2904-4be0-aa48-96e56aa49df2","type":"comment","publication":{"apple_pay_disabled":false,"apex_domain":null,"author_id":16879,"byline_images_enabled":true,"bylines_enabled":true,"chartable_token":null,"community_enabled":true,"copyright":"J. 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Hutcheson","handle":"thomaslhutcheson","previous_name":null,"photo_url":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bebb8de5-9c24-45a8-bec1-ee5430637313_144x144.png","bio":"[email protected]","profile_set_up_at":"2021-04-16T20:15:38.181Z"},"attachments":[]},"trackingParameters":{"item_primary_entity_key":"c-45502251","item_entity_key":"c-45502251","item_type":"comment","item_publication_id":47874,"item_post_id":139816082,"item_comment_id":45502251,"item_content_user_id":15051362,"item_context_type":"comment","item_context_type_bucket":"","item_context_timestamp":"2023-12-16T13:37:44.798Z","item_context_user_id":15051362,"item_context_user_ids":[],"item_can_reply":false,"item_last_impression_at":null,"impression_id":"6e9b78d1-e52c-4ddf-9e22-e7a71f3bf7b9","followed_user_count":1398,"subscribed_publication_count":1115,"is_following":true,"is_explicitly_subscribed":true}}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">\n\nMarko Elez, last July:\n\nMarko Elez: ‘Normalize Indian hate…’ ‘I was racist before it was cool…” “You could not pay me to marry outside my ethnicity…” “99% of Indian H1Bs will be replaced by slightly smarter LLMs, they’re going back don’t worry guys…” “I would not mind at all if Gaza and Israel were both wiped off the face of the earth…” \n\nIf JD Vance won’t defend his children’s place here in America, who and what is he?","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Neofascism"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Some truly extraordinary vice signalling from J.D. Vance:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"J.D. Vance"},{"type":"text","text":": ‘Here’s my view. I obviously disagree with some of [Marko] Elez’s posts, but I don’t think stupid social media activity should ruin a kid’s life. We shouldn’t reward journalists who try to destroy people. Ever. So I say bring [Marco Elez] back. If he’s a bad dude or a terrible member of the team, fire him for that… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://x.com/JDVance/status/1887900880143343633","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://x.com/JDVance/status/1887900880143343633"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Marko Elez, last July:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Marko Elez"},{"type":"text","text":": ‘Normalize Indian hate…’ ‘I was racist before it was cool…” “You could not pay me to marry outside my ethnicity…” “99% of Indian H1Bs will be replaced by slightly smarter LLMs, they’re going back don’t worry guys…” “I would not mind at all if Gaza and Israel were both wiped off the face of the earth…” <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.wsj.com/tech/doge-staffer-resigns-over-racist-posts-d9f11a93","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.wsj.com/tech/doge-staffer-resigns-over-racist-posts-d9f11a93"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"If JD Vance won’t defend his children’s place here in America, who and what is he?"}]}]},"restacks":3,"reaction_count":14,"attachments":[],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">\n\nAnd Vice Chair Philip Jefferson:\n\nPhilip Jefferson: The U.S. Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy: ‘I continue to see a gradual reduction in the level of monetary policy restraint placed on the economy as we move toward a more neutral stance as the most likely outcome. That said, I do not think we need to be in a hurry to change our stance…. I expect some further softening that could cause the unemployment rate to edge just slightly higher this year… \n\nAnd Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is saying that a Fed that raises interest rates this year would be a judo move to boost its inflation-fighting credibility and thus lower long-term rates, which are the important thing:\n\nScott Bessent: ‘[Trump] and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury. [Trump] is not calling for the Fed to lower rates…. If we deregulate the economy, if we get this tax bill done, if we get energy down, then rates will take care of themselves and the dollar will take care of itself… \n\nAside from being a lie—Trump is calling for the Fed to lower rates, and in the past Bessent has said you should interpret his calls as the same kind of helpful kibbitzing addressed to the Fed that senators do—Bessent’s current line is a very interesting sand-line that Treasury, at least, will respect Fed independence and will claim that Trump respects it too.","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"I do not think short-term interest rates have a more than 30% chance of going any lower this year."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Austen Goolsbee"},{"type":"text","text":": Lessons from the Supply Side: ‘Tariffs may apply to more countries or more goods or at higher rates, in which case the impact could turn out to be larger and longer lasting…. The supply chain is more specialized and more fragile than you might think, supply-side problems can spill over into other markets, and supply-side disruptions can have a material impact on aggregate inflation…"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"And:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"We saw in Covid times that the more complex the supply chain, the longer it took to manage. The shocks might have started as transitory but quickly they became traaaaansitory, at best… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.chicagofed.org/-/media/publications/speeches/2025/2-5-25-automotive-insights-symposium.pdf","target":"_new","rel":"noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.chicagofed.org/-/media/publications/speeches/2025/2-5-25-automotive-insights-symposium.pdf"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"And Vice Chair Philip Jefferson:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Philip Jefferson"},{"type":"text","text":": The U.S. Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy: ‘I continue to see a gradual reduction in the level of monetary policy restraint placed on the economy as we move toward a more neutral stance as the most likely outcome. That said, I do not think we need to be in a hurry to change our stance…. I expect some further softening that could cause the unemployment rate to edge just slightly higher this year… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/jefferson20250204a.pdf","target":"_new","rel":"noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/jefferson20250204a.pdf"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"And Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is saying that a Fed that raises interest rates this year would be a judo move to boost its inflation-fighting credibility and thus lower long-term rates, which are the important thing:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Scott Bessent"},{"type":"text","text":": ‘[Trump] and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury. [Trump] is not calling for the Fed to lower rates…. If we deregulate the economy, if we get this tax bill done, if we get energy down, then rates will take care of themselves and the dollar will take care of itself… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-06/bessent-explains-trump-it-won-t-be-the-last-time","target":"_blank","rel":"noopener noreferrer nofollow","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-06/bessent-explains-trump-it-won-t-be-the-last-time"},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Aside from being a lie—Trump is calling for the Fed to lower rates, and in the past Bessent has said you should interpret his calls as the same kind of helpful kibbitzing addressed to the Fed that senators do—Bessent’s current line is a very interesting sand-line that Treasury, at least, will respect Fed independence and will claim that Trump respects it too."}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":8,"attachments":[{"id":"d0ad6c0d-abe8-4ebd-bf36-2746ca7219a4","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-02-06/bessent-explains-trump-it-won-t-be-the-last-time","host":"bloomberg.com","title":"Bessent Explains Trump. It Won’t Be the Last Time","description":"At least their economic strategy on the 10-year yield takes the focus off the Fed.","image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b2db2517-8e2e-4438-80dd-423235c70352_1200x800.jpeg","original_image":"https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iAlV8Db5BagU/v1/1200x800.jpg"},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">\n\nJust who is the audience for this bullshit, really? Does he think Trump will read it, and be influenced in some way?","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"},{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Journamalism"},{"type":"text","text":": "},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"MOAR reporters and analysts simply not doing their job. In this case, the “Lexington” correspondent for the London Economist. I do not know whether he is working for his bosses, his sources, or some cabal of advertisers, but he is definitely not working for you or me."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Underneath the headline and subhead “America really could enter a golden age: Donald Trump would need to build on its strengths, and subdue his own weaknesses”, the “Lexington” feels the need to tell us not to believe our lying eyes."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Yes, he begins concessively:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"bold"}],"text":"Lexington"},{"type":"text","text":": America really could enter a golden age: ‘Maybe you are in the habit of applying a hefty discount to claims by Donald Trump; no one could blame you…"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"But he immediately finds his stride, pretending that “Donald Trump” is a completely different animal than we all know him to be:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"[Trump]… has…credibility with immigration hardliners… and thus… an opening to achieve… comprehensive immigration reform [that] has eluded presidents since 1986…."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Other grand, bipartisan bargains are possible…. He has not displayed interest in… far-reaching tax reform…."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"But in his first term he showed a flash of ambition for the sort of gun-safety legislation that polls show a majority of Americans want…."}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Opportunities to prove himself a peacemaker… await… in Eastern Europe and the Middle East…. The test for Mr Trump is whether he can insist on fair deals for Ukraine, and for the Palestinians…"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"And then in the next to last paragraph comes a peroration:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"From Abraham Lincoln to Franklin Roosevelt to Reagan, presidents who accomplished great things appear more as unifiers in the eyes of history than they did in those of their contemporaries. They were all dividers… subjected to vicious criticism and even violent attack…"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Before, in the lat paragraph, returning to reality:"}]},{"type":"blockquote","content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"Mr Trump has yet even to hint at the grandeur of spirit that those presidents brought to the job. The petty partisanship of his inaugural address,… pardons of… violent January 6th convicts… weaknesses likely to cast a shadow… self-pity, a flickering attention span, a vulnerability to flattery and a reverence for strongmen… <"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://www.economist.com/united-states/2025/01/21/america-really-could-enter-a-golden-age?__readwiseLocation=","target":"_blank","rel":"noopener noreferrer nofollow","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://www.economist.com/united-states/2025/01/21/america-really-could-enter-a-golden-age?__readwiseLocation="},{"type":"text","text":">"}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"italic"}],"text":"Just who is the audience for this bullshit, really? Does he think Trump will read it, and be influenced in some way?"}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":12,"attachments":[{"id":"26b6192e-3ad5-4fe6-88c8-5bd3050a8246","type":"link","linkMetadata":{"url":"https://www.economist.com/united-states/2025/01/21/america-really-could-enter-a-golden-age","host":"economist.com","title":"America really could enter a golden age","description":"Donald Trump would need to build on its strengths, and subdue his own weaknesses","image":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9fd1289a-777d-4a51-b7ae-decf9bbc28c3_1280x720.jpeg","original_image":"https://www.economist.com/content-assets/images/20250125_USD000.jpg"},"explicit":false}],"name":"Brad DeLong","user_id":16879,"photo_url":"https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fea5ae644-9822-4ca5-ac6b-e18c017d8fbc_1189x1208.png","user_bestseller_tier":1000}}" data-component-name="CommentPlaceholder">

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SubStack Posts: America’s economic data wasn’t hiding an unusual crisis—voters were just misled into believing one existed. The real distortion was in the narrative being fed to and believed by voters. Yes, America’s underemployment and \n\n====\n\ninadequate wage rate is 24%, but that or worse has always been the case. And to say that there was an unusual gap between reality on the one hand and official statistical measures on the other is simply wrong:

Blame the Right-Wing Noise Machine, Not the Facts on the Ground, for Voters' Dismay About the Economy
No, our economic statistics were not painting us an unusually rosy picture last fall. Yes, the state of the American economy is very disappointing. But the gap between what the statistics tell us and the amount of disappointment present in the actual reality—there was no sense in which that gap was unusually large last fall…

2025-02-16 Su","body_json":{"type":"doc","attrs":{"schemaVersion":"v1"},"content":[{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"<"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/blame-the-right-wing-noise-machine","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/blame-the-right-wing-noise-machine"},{"type":"text","text":"> America’s economic data wasn’t hiding an unusual crisis—voters were just misled into believing one existed. The real distortion was in the narrative being fed to and believed by voters. Yes, America’s underemployment and "}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"===="}]},{"type":"paragraph","content":[{"type":"text","text":"inadequate wage rate is 24%, but that or worse has always been the case. And to say that there was an unusual gap between reality on the one hand and official statistical measures on the other is simply wrong:

Blame the Right-Wing Noise Machine, Not the Facts on the Ground, for Voters' Dismay About the Economy
No, our economic statistics were not painting us an unusually rosy picture last fall. Yes, the state of the American economy is very disappointing. But the gap between what the statistics tell us and the amount of disappointment present in the actual reality—there was no sense in which that gap was unusually large last fall…
<"},{"type":"text","marks":[{"type":"link","attrs":{"href":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/blame-the-right-wing-noise-machine","target":"_blank","rel":"nofollow ugc noopener","class":"note-link"}}],"text":"https://braddelong.substack.com/p/blame-the-right-wing-noise-machine"},{"type":"text","text":">
2025-02-16 Su"}]}]},"restacks":0,"reaction_count":2,"attachments":[{"id":"8ef1df04-7c03-40d3-85ce-bd234b763d7b","type":"publication","publication":{"apple_pay_disabled":false,"apex_domain":null,"author_id":16879,"byline_images_enabled":true,"bylines_enabled":true,"chartable_token":null,"community_enabled":true,"copyright":"J. 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