I have argued that the current US cycle is ‘dying of lack’, but that this means not recession, but rather the transition to a new cycle. Yes, I’m saying that ‘it’s different this time’, which means there’s long odds (about 4:1) against my being right. This piece explains why I’m prepared to take those odds, and considers the break-out in business start-ups seen in the US during 4Q - precisely during the period of darkest consumer depression measured so far this century. Madness, or the transition emerging?

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