Energy transitions: learning from the past

How can we learn from past transitions in systems of energy production and consumption? This is the main question for the sixth and last episode in the ‘Future Making in the Anthropocene’-podcast series. In order to sustain current lifestyles in the industrialized (Western) part of the world, enormous amounts of energy are needed. By studying past crises in energy systems starting with the agricultural revolution, we can learn what we need to do, to transition to a low-carbon future.

Terranova-researcher Alex Martinez looked into historical shift in energy regime, starting with the transition from hunter-gatherer communities to an agricultural society. Every transition since has resulted in a higher demand in energy consumption, requiring higher levels of production. He concludes that our environment can no longer provide the energy needed to sustain the model of continuous growth and argues for a shift towards a more environmentally friendly way of living. "We are stuck in a loop. Each time we resolve a crisis, we create a new and larger one. In the current transition towards a low-carbon future, we find ourselves in a new resource- and energy crisis. We need to find a way to step out of this loop."

Menne Kosian of the Cultural Heritage Agency of the Netherlands adds to Martinez’ insights with examples from practice. Whereas some people see changes to our landscapes such as the introduction of solar farms and wind parks as a threat, Kosian places them in a larger historical process of adaptation. "Change is the main characteristic of landscapes. If you preserve landscapes, you take away their main characteristic." This doesn’t mean any kind of change contributes to the character of a landscape. In order to provide integrated solutions that answer to local characteristics, knowledge of historical developments in the landscape can be used as a source of inspiration.

Show notes

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/14/10/1621 of https://www.ern.org/en/small-and-micro-hydropower/ and https://riubu.ubu.es/bitstream/10259/4753/1/Alonso-RSER_2011.pdf 

The fifth episode of the ‘Future Making in the Anthropocene’-podcast covers the impact of climate change on landscapes. We are experiencing the devastating effects of the warming of the planet: forest fires, floods and heavy storms. They impact our lives and affect natural habitats. Computer models help to understand climate change and provide information on the future. But those models will not be able to halt current trends: is humankind ready to act?

"If you want to project what will happen to our climate in the future, you have to look back into history", states Frank Arthur. Arthur is a researcher in the Terranova-program, working at the University of South-eastern Norway. Arthur has simulated the climate of the past 11,500 years in different European regions in a high-resolution model. Such models are essential in simulating climate patterns and can help to project trends into the future.

To create an accurate climate model, meteorological data is combined with archeological archives, retrieved from archeological sites such as glaciers, ice cores, sediment layers and lakes. This historical data is fed into the models to simulate what happened many ages ago. This method makes it possible to develop models with a higher resolution, that deliver more accurate data than their predecessors. "In order to increase accuracy, we need to add more climate models with high resolution into the system, adding to the ones that exist already. The next step is to use these models to project into the future", says Arthur.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) traces and interprets climate change on a global level. Their reports provide insights into the far-reaching consequences of climate change to our planet. Hans Renssen, professor on Climate Change and supervisor of Arthur's research, isn't convinced that governments are taking adequate measures to limit the emission of greenhouses gases. However, both Renssen and Arthur are persevering in their long-term endeavour to spread knowledge on climate change to policy makers, among others. In the podcast, they explain how their research contributes to the huge task humankind is facing.

Show notes

- Arthur, F., Roche, D. M., Fyfe, R., Quiquet, A., and Renssen, H.: Simulations of the Holocene climate in Europe using an interactive downscaling within the iLOVECLIM model (version 1.1), published in: Clim. Past, 19, 87–106 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-87-2023

- According to the IPCC Synthesis-report, published in March 2023, it is only possible to avoid warming of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) or 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) if massive and immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are made.

- Contact Frank Arthur by e-mail

- Contact Hans Renssen by e-mail

This episode of the Future making in the Anthropocene-podcast focuses on actionable science and how to raise awareness among different stakeholders about changes in their landscapes. This type of science starts from the bottom up and addresses dilemmas that communities are faced with. By consulting them in the development of scenarios of possible and desirable futures, this research method helps to empower citizens in complex decision-making processes and prevents that they feel left out. As a result, stakeholders from totally different backgrounds are introduced to each other’s perspectives and might, ultimately, become involved in policies that affect their environment.

Developing scenarios helps to envisage possible futures and understand the effects of choices we make now. Scenarios also help to breakdown wicked problems into smaller parts. By providing a better understanding and a framework, science can help to bridge differences between people
from different backgrounds. Scenarios are discussed with as many stakeholders as possible. In that way, local knowledge is accumulated and can be put to use by policy makers, who are supported by this process in the difficult decisions that need to be made.

In a recent study, Terranova-researcher Roberta Rigo verified how scenarios could actually contribute to land management. By zooming in on two regions in Brittany (France), she questions how effective scenarios are in producing outcomes for local stakeholders. She interviewed and brought together a multitude of current stakeholders in workshops that dealt with several issues that are of importance to those living and working in the region. These dealt primarily with the
management and availability of water, for all types of use, including farming. Due to recent droughts this proved to be an overarching subject that concerned everyone involved, from citizens to professionals such as water managers. The setup urged all of them to think about water management from a broad perspective.

This method seems to counteract a current trend of narrowing of perspectives, or so-called siloization, in the management of landscapes. This concerns regions throughout Europe. In the Netherlands, for instance, farmers have long been pressured to produce as much as possible, often at the expense of the farmland's soil and water quality. This has led to a sharp decline in biodiversity that Sarah Westenburg, a Dutch expert on agricultural policy, is hoping will be turned around by supporting farmers' collectives in their transition towards more nature-inclusive agriculture. BoerenNatuur, the organisation representing 40 agricultural collectives in the Netherlands, facilitates these collectives in executing more ecologically sustainable agricultural practices by providing so-called green blue services. These green blue services can support the necessary transition, but they do not yet, however, yield enough revenues to provide farmers with the necessary support and incentive to change their current business model of farming.

In this third episode Heriland-researcher MJ Swiderski explains how memories could provide a base for collecting heritage values and applying them to urban planning processes. Architect and researcher Lidwine Spoormans reflects on his research and provides views on how everyday heritage is as least as important for residents than protected monuments.

Warsaw-born MJ Swiderski is part of the Heriland research program, dedicated to training a new generation of heritage professionals. His research makes a great example of how young or ‘everyday’ heritage might be approached in ways that take account of residents’ views. He consulted residents of Ursynów (Warsaw), one of the largest housing estates built during the socialist period in Poland, to share their personal memories about their surroundings. By adding fictional characters, illustrations and his own personal memories to the online questionnaire, he managed to collect over 1.100 reactions. The memories were used for an urban game and workshop for residents and heritage and planning professionals, that allowed for informed discussions on the future of Ursynów.

The term ‘everyday heritage’ is frequently coined by Lidwine Spoormans, an architect and lecturer at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. She specializes in post-war architecture, and, more specifically, architecture built in the 1980’s. A couple of years ago, she launched the online platform ‘Love 80’s architecture', that showcases both well-known, as well as more obscure, Dutch buildings and urban schemes from that period. Like Swiderski, she takes residents’ views on their surroundings seriously. She recognizes residents’ ability to spot other qualities than those promoted by professionals, i.e. the authorized heritage discourse. “Residents assess from today’s point of view, instead of referring to the intentions of the urban design.”

MJ Swiderski conducts his PhD-research under supervision of professor Gert-Jan Burgers and professor Henri de Groot and research associate Niels van Manen of the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam.

Show notes

- Find out more about MJ Swiderski’s method in English or in Polish

- View MJ Swiderski’s Profile on the Heriland website.

- Read or contribute to Lidwine Spoormans’ initiative Love 80’s architecture

- View Lidwine Spoormans’ Profile on the website of Delft University of Technology

In this second episode, Heriland-researcher Nan Bai explains how social media can help to understand citizens’ engagement with heritage sites. In response to Bai, Inez Weyermans of the City of Amsterdam’s heritage department, provides her views on dilemmas concerning the appreciation of Amsterdam’s famous Canal Ring Area.

In this episode, Heriland-researchers Komal Potdar and Ana Jayone Yarza Pérez share views and dilemmas that they encountered in two Israeli port cities: Jaffa and Acre. Their research addresses the development of life in these historic cities from places to live into places that are threatened by mass tourism, gentrification and flooding, caused by climate change. The cumulative effects of these developments are challenging the value of urban heritage. This can lead to a conflict in interests between residents and businesses, such as real estate developers that cater to the tourist industry. Is the local government capable of bringing conflicting views together in city planning and can it involve the civil society in far-reaching decision-making processes? According to Ana Jayone Perez, asking citizens about major changes in their city, provides an enormous challenge for them. “We are not used to imagining urban futures because the speed of human life is totally different to the speed of the city. Usually the city changes really slowly, while we change our clothes every day and the furniture in our homes every five or ten years.” 

She argues that city planners should raise awareness on pressing issues and study the cities’ historic evolution to provide insights on possible future development. To understand the evolution of historic cities, archival maps, historic photos along with intangible aspects of memory and identity play an important role in interpretation and documentation. Innovative methods and tools should be applied for the assessment of the attributes and values of historic cities. Komal Potdar stresses: “The spatial interventions of today will be the character and heritage of the future. This emphasizes the fact that the attributes of historic cities, which gives them their identity, need to be addressed, documented, and assessed for their values. And should foster critical discussions amongst the designers and planners.”