Phin Ziebell joins Ray Attrill, Head of FX Strategy, to discuss the volatility we have seen in the AUD post FOMC and what this means for our forecasts. With the AUD closing the month below 75 cents, Phin asks where this leaves NAB’s AUD forecasts. Ray discusses what occurred through June, including the AUD fall post FOMC and the impact of China clamping down on perceived speculation in the commodity market.

Ray discusses his key takeaways for FY 21, stating it was a year of two halves with early strength in the AUD when the market was full of optimisation, and more recently when the AUD lost its shine thanks to the movement in the US interest rate market. Fundamentally Ray still believes the AUD will move higher with our fair value model suggesting 80 cents remains our target this year. However recent history suggests the AUD won’t necessarily move in a straight line higher. Ray discusses key risks to his view are the Federal Reserve moving interest rates sooner than expected or larger economies move into new lockdowns that will impact global growth.