Everyone's dumping millions on Scottie Scheffler to win the Genesis Invitational at Riviera this week because he's the World Number One, but here's the problem: even the best golfer on Earth only wins about ten percent of the time in a stacked seventy-two player field with eighteen of the top twenty players competing. The sharp play is fading Scheffler's overpriced odds and building a portfolio around Collin Morikawa, who just won Pebble Beach with the exact skill set Riviera demands, plus Rory McIlroy and Hideki Matsuyama who both have the firepower to handle the course's new two hundred seventy-five yard chaos-injecting fourth hole. You're basically betting on the eighty-eight percent chance someone other than the favorite wins, which is just math, not disrespect.