This week on GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer talk to Executive Director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute Peter Jennings PSM about Australian strategic policy, China and what to expect from the new Biden Administration. 

Peter is one of Australia's most influential voices when it comes to national and international security policy. He has served as a Deputy Secretary for Strategy in the Australian Defence Department and as Chief of Staff to the Minister for Defence in the 1990s. 

It is clear that Australia is dealing with a much more complex strategic environment than ever before. A rising and assertive China coupled with a more introverted United States means Australia's strategic decisions are much harder. 

According to Peter, the new Biden administration will be a welcome change from the previous four years. President Biden will seek and take advice from a group of smart and experienced foreign and defence policy professionals, who all served in the Obama Adminstrations. But the concern is the Biden team may not be as creative as they need to be to meet the demands of this new strategic situation and fall back into old habits and ideas. It will also take time for the US to convince the region that it is once again capable of real leadership.

Australia will need to do what it can to shape American thinking about how it engages with its allies. It is incumbent on the Australian bureaucracy to furnish the Government with ideas about how to approach the US, but unfortunately there is so far not much new policy thinking. The 70th anniversary of ANZUS presents a unique opportunity to recast and rejuvenate the Alliance. So we need new thinking, fast. 

Xi Jinping's China is much more confident in its capacity to seek strategic advantage and has over the past decade operated effectively in an opportunistic way. Its successes in the South China Sea and convincing some in the developing world that its model of authoritarian government is preferable to a liberal democratic one has given rise to overconfidence. This overconfidence may lead to extra risk taking (eg, on Taiwan) and the continuation of wolf warrior diplomacy which plays well to a domestic audience. 

While the Australian Government's approach to China has largely been correct when its made the hard decisions on 5G, foreign influence laws, foreign donations to political parties, and FIRB requirements, these decisions have come only after it had tried every other stupid approach first. What the Government must do, however, is bring the Australian public into its confidence on China, and clearly explain the strategic fundamentals behind these tough decisions.  

The Australian Government's decision to procure the shortfin barracuda submarines has been fraught with controversy. It was a mistake for the Government to pitch this decision as industry policy designed to boost the South Australian economy rather than as one of strategic benefit to the defence of the nation. Regardless, the Australian Government has no option but to make the current submarine plan work because to do anything else will add years and years to the project.