This week on GeoPod Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer discuss the recent military coup in Myanmar with Professor Nicholas Farrelly.

Nich is currently the Head of Social Sciences at the University of Tasmania and is one of Australia's leading experts on Myanmar. 

The military coup in Myanmar is a setback on the road to democracy for Myanmar. The country's de facto leader and national hero Aung San Suu Kyi has been arrested by the military, along with her cabinet and party members and advisors. 

But how did we get here? The military claimed last November's elections at which Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party won in a landslide were fraudulent. There is no evidence of fraud but the hope is that the military will hold fresh elections within the next year to reestablish democracy once more in this country. 

The challenge for the military will be to counter the popularity of Aung San Suu Kyi, who is seen by many as a the mother of the nation. Her record as a leading democracy campaigner saw her awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991, although her defence of the Burmese military's genocidal campaign against the minority Rohingya people shocked the international community. She is an incredibly complicated international figure. 

How Western governments, ASEAN, and the international community handle the Myanmar issue will be key. It will also be an early test for the Biden Administration of its diplomatic skills. Alienating and sanctioning the Tatmadaw (Myanmar's military) comes with the risk of China's influence rising, although historical enmities mean that Burmese are naturally suspicious of China's intentions. ASEAN's role will be significant in shaping the military's pathway out of this crisis.

You can also read Alexander's view on Myanmar in his latest column for the Australian Financial Review.