Recent developments have increased the odds of a partial return of Libyan supplies, but the political situation remains fluid meaning any recovery is likely to be volatile. Looking further ahead, a Biden victory in the upcoming US presidential election could provide a catalyst to restart diplomacy with Iran. Negotiators are likely to seek a broader agreement than the previous Iran nuclear deal, which will be a slow process especially as Iran will want any new deal agreed by the US Senate.

Still, some waivers for Iranian oil exports granted at an early stage in the talks. This may complicate Saudi efforts to maintain cohesion and compliance among OPEC members with the OPEC+ agreement. Saudi Arabia may also have to face further erosion of the US-Saudi alliance, forcing it to reconsider its strategic approach to alliances in the Middle East.