How Geopolitics and Inflation affect the markets

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Why are oil-based stocks the top-performing sector?

U.S. claims that Russian Troops increased from 100,000 to about 190,000

Why Crude Oil prices could potentially fall

1. Iran may release oil which will cause price drops.
2. Russia pulls back from the Ukraine invasion by withdrawal
3. Oil supply to the global markets would increase from 2 to 3.5 million barrels per day

Why Oil Prices could Increase

1. Russia invades Ukraine, and then prices would rise.
2. The West will sanction Russian oil (removing 10 million barrels/day of oil from the world market)
3. Iran would not replace the loss of Russian oil (3.5 million barrels per day)
4. Best-case scenario would be the loss of 6 million barrels per day
5. Therefore, a significant increase in oil prices

Math-based analytics for the oil sector

1. Technical analysis points to higher oil prices
2. Fundamentals point to higher oil prices
3. Members of https://secretedge.us get the inside story with techniques on trading the oil markets with a low risk / high return trade method

Bottom-performing sector with Math-based analytics

1. PPI reported 9.7% year-over-year inflation on Tuesday, February 15, 2022
2. Retail Sales Report of 3.8% month-over-month versus consensus of 2.0%
3. Will FOMC raise rates as much as 50 basis points at the March 16 meeting?
4. People believing in 25 basis points also think there will be six or seven rate hikes ahead of us

Cause of current Inflation issues

1. Supply Chain is slowing down the production of goods.
2. Demand for materials is greater than the supply of goods.
3. US Government with Leftists gave lots of free money out, and the people responded by not working. As a result, lots of money chasing fewer goods. Socialism now the root cause of inflation.

The Disconnect between Oil Prices and Interest Rates

1. Increasing interest rates will not affect oil prices
2. Oil prices rise due to supply deficiency

Why FOMC will Increase Interest Rates

1. Politicians pushing for higher interest rates
2. FOMC will ignore geopolitical issues

Links between geopolitics and Increasing Interest Rates

1. Market forces
2. Geopolitics

Three scenarios for the markets week of February 22 - 25 2022Where are we?

1. general market continues in a sideways and bearish type pattern
2. Top-performing sector is oil based stocks
3. Bottom-performing sector is increasing interest rates

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