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Ghana's currency, the cedi, has recently experienced significant fluctuations that have captured the attention of economists, business owners, and everyday Ghanaians alike. After appreciating by an impressive 50% against the US dollar between January and June 2025—making it the world's best-performing currency during that period—the cedi has since lost approximately 13% of its value in just one month. This sudden reversal has raised questions about the stability of Ghana's economy and the effectiveness of current monetary policies.

The depreciation of the cedi can be attributed to several interconnected factors. Foremost among these is the seasonal surge in dollar demand for imports, particularly as businesses prepare for the lucrative Christmas market. Between September and late November, Ghanaian importers typically require substantial amounts of foreign currency to purchase goods. This creates a significant pressure on the cedi as businesses scramble to secure US dollars for their operations.

Another crucial factor has been the Bank of Ghana's reduced intervention in the forex market. Earlier in the year, the central bank actively supported the cedi by purchasing dollars and injecting them into the economy. However, in alignment with IMF commitments, the Bank of Ghana has now adopted a more cautious approach, scaling back its direct market interventions.

Despite these challenges, it's important to note that the cedi's performance isn't all negative. When viewed in a broader context, the currency is still up by 23% year-to-date, which represents a relatively strong position compared to January 2023. Furthermore, Ghana's international reserves reached a three-year high of $11.1 billion in June, providing a potential buffer against excessive currency volatility. 

This more balanced approach to currency management has coincided with positive developments in Ghana's inflation rate. August's inflation figure of 11.5% represents a four-year low since October 2021. Food inflation has also shown modest improvement, declining from 15.1% in July to 14.8% in August. These figures suggest that while the cedi's depreciation presents challenges, the overall economic situation is gradually stabilizing 

Looking ahead, Ghana has several options for strengthening the cedi and building a more resilient economy. In the short term, finalizing external debt restructuring, enforcing stricter forex market regulations, could help stabilize the exchange rate. More fundamental solutions include boosting local production to reduce import dependency, expanding non-traditional exports such as textiles, improving domestic revenue collection, and renegotiating more favourable terms for gold, oil and Lithium.

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