It’s the third week of the month and as always I run a check to see if there are any revisions to last month’s market statistics and in doing so, I get a glimpse at the numbers to come. The last few months there have not been any major revisions worth talking about, which is true for this month as well, but next month is always worth talking about. So let’s get into it.

The real estate market statistics below are provided by www.AccuFlip .com and the local MLS. The statistics pulled are for Los Angeles County single family homes.

First off the only revision to the July’s numbers, were that volume was up slightly. Less than 50 sales. Now for August; it’s looking like the cooling trend is going to continue for another month. I think this is a good thing for the longevity of the market. Los Angeles is mostly unaffordable and as the market pulls back, we are given some time for incomes to catch up. This helps keep us out of bubble territory and gives us the potential to have a healthy real estate market for years to come.

Sale Price

The August median sale price for single family homes is looking to come in at $566,000. A whopping .18% increase from August’s $565,000 median sale price. Again this is fine in my book. This gives us a predictable and safe market. The flattening off of the market is because of a market that is not in a manic state of mind. There are many indicators that can show a dive coming, but I don’t see that. Just a flatting out due to affordability, not loss of interest or a sell off.

Volume

                Volume is currently at 2310 sales for the month and we’ll probably see at least another 1600 to 1900 sales by month’s end. Yes, volume will be down from July, but it’s okay and somewhat normal. As long as we hit 4000 sales we will beat sales volume from last year, which to me is more important than beating July. I WANT TO BE BETTER THAN THE YEAR BEFORE, ALWAYS AND WITH EVERYTHING!

Active Listings and Pending Sales

                Currently, Active listings are up from a month ago and Pending sales are down, ever so slightly. Again, no biggie. There are 11,000 homes for sale and 7935 in escrow.

I know that I’m going against my usual talk of warning signs, where I always say to watch out for rising inventor and falling sales volume, it’s a lead indicator of price decline… But it happens from time to time. You could see the current trends as showing that we are going over the top of the hill and the Actives to Sales and Actives to Volume gap will continue to widen and prices are going to come down, but I’m telling you they’re not. We will probably see less sales through the end of the year, as always. If you want real proof that nothing is happening (which is good), look at the ratios and compare them to years when it REALLY WAS bad. Right now the ratio, as a percentage, of Pendings to Actives is at 72%. This is a high and if I were just looking at this ratio alone, I would say that prices are going to go up. Now the ratio that will put it into real perspective; Sales Volume to Actives. Even if we fall short and only hit 3900 sales by the end of the month, the ratio as a percentage, would be at 30%. Prices tend to rise when this ratio is over 33% and fall when below 19%. Let’s compare this to a time when things were really bad… January 2008. In January 2008 the Volume to sales ratio was at 5%. There were 36000 active listings and only 2000 sales. That is what bad looks like.

In conclusion, things are looking good. Prices are flattening out giving us longevity. The market on a macro (mini macro) level looks good. Micro markets will be different. Some will have dips and others will take off. Long term real estate is always good, so if you’re looking to buy a pri