Concern over external imbalances – specifically “excessive” trade deficits and surpluses – is nothing new. But the current environment of escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies underscores the importance of understanding the actual drivers of trade outcomes. Exchange rates are part of the story, but only a part.

In the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, and at the direction of the world’s largest economies, the IMF began publishing an annual report to identify the key sources and drivers of external imbalances. The IMF’s latest ESR estimates that about 35 to 45 percent of overall current account surpluses and deficits were “excessive” in 2018, are increasingly concentrated in advanced economies, and are now driven mainly by fiscal policies and structural factors.

On September 13, Dr. Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department at the IMF, will speak to the findings of the latest ESR in a keynote address at CSIS. She will then be joined by an expert panel to discuss global imbalances and the dynamics of external adjustment.

Gita Gopinath, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department at the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Matthew P. Goodman, Senior Vice President and Simon Chair in Political Economy, CSIS

Robin Brooks, Managing Director and Chief Economist, Institute of International Finance

Mark Sobel, US Chairman, OMFIF; former Deputy Assistant Secretary, US Treasury; and former US representative at the IMF

Stephanie Segal, Simon Chair Senior Fellow, CSIS