Supply chain issues with semiconductor chips, hot rolled steel, and foam products are disrupting the production of light vehicles. AFS reviews the problems and causes of the disruptions within the car and truck assembly industry worldwide. For the YouTube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJCSU3NihlA Find out how AFS can work for you: www.autoforecastsolutions.com Joe McCabe: jmccabe@autoforecastsolutions.com Sam Fiorani: sfiorani@autoforecastsolutions.com  

Global Vehicle Disruption Analysis - March 2021

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  Early adopters found #electricvehicles to be attractive alternatives to their ICE-powered prestige models, however the new-ness of buying an EV is wearing off. With that comes the need to compete for buyers. Despite #elonmusk ’s belief that the only limit to Tesla sales growth was pricing, there aren’t 20 million buyers just waiting for an affordable #tesla Improving production methods and lowering prices has become the latest step in the EV transition. Unanticipated snags at #generalmotors are slowing the roll-out of #cadillac , #hummer , and #BrightDrop EVs. Slow production means the EVs aren’t backed up at GM dealers, however #ford #mustangmache output grew to 13,000 per month without the expected rise in sales. This huge disconnect pushed July inventory in the U.S. to about 100-days supply in a market that targets half that number. The domestics aren’t alone in these growing pains. Startup #fisker outsourced production of its first model. In its second quarter report, “1,022 of the class-leading #fiskerocean SUVs were produced in Austria for customers.” The factory shipped just 110 SUVs in the first six months of this year, leaving a huge number unaccounted for. Fisker points to shipping issues for the difference and requiring a quick solution for the company to reach its previously stated goal of producing 6,000 units in the third quarter. Pricing and production issues become increasingly important. If suppliers and shippers can keep up the production, the bottleneck will be finding enough buyers to absorb all of these new electric vehicles. Supply and demand will balance as they EVs become mainstream products competing directly with traditional models, which will sort out the winners and losers. For the YouTube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pk3n2Y64eRs Find out how AFS can work for you: www.autoforecastsolutions.com Joe McCabe: jmccabe@autoforecastsolutions.com Sam Fiorani: sfiorani@autoforecastsolutions.com

90 Seconds with AFS - EV Market Shakeout

Few brands will hit their pure electric targets as they need to convert hundreds of thousands of buyers to the idea that an EV perfectly replaces their current model. Rolls-Royce, however only needs to find a few thousand buyers, and the appeal of an all-electric Rolls-Royce is obvious. Claimed on their website, this is “the beginning of an era that will see the entire model portfolio electrified by 2030” and that the new Spectre is “setting a clear path toward the marque’s first all-electric decade.” Henry Royce and Charles Rolls set a goal to build the “best car in the world.” Famed automotive writer Ken Purdy wrote that “the Rolls is not only the best car the world has ever seen, it is very probably the best piston-engine car the world will ever see.” Blending a modern electric drivetrain with the elegance of a Rolls-Royce seems to create the car that Sir Royce would envision today, if he were still alive. There’s a limit to how smooth and powerful a piston engine can be. A modern BEV has advantages over the V12 engine with its inherent smoothness and its quiet delivery of all that power. Up from the 563hp from the twin-turbocharged engine, the Spectre produces 430kW of electric power, or about 577hp. As emissions tighten around Rolls-Royce’s big cars, BEVs will be necessary. The 5,400-lb Wraith coupe consumes a gallon of gas for every 12 miles of city driving while polluting 624 g of CO2 every mile and needs to be refueled every 263 miles. Based on the WLTP test cycle, the 6,600-lb Spectre, with its 0 g/mi of CO2 tailpipe emissions, can travel up to 323 miles on a single charge. Two motors, one on each axle, allow the permanent all-wheel drive system to move more than three tons of car from zero to 100 km/h in 4.4 seconds. With a base price somewhere north of US$400,000, the Spectre is just the start of the next era for Rolls-Royce. For the YouTube video:  Find out how AFS can work for you: www.autoforecastsolutions.com Joe McCabe: jmccabe@autoforecastsolutions.com Sam Fiorani: sfiorani@autoforecastsolutions.com

90 Seconds with AFS - Rolls-Royce Spectre

Internet rumors are a terrible source of information on the automotive industry. Here are a few that you need to avoid. The Ford Taurus - Clean Tech Yes, there is a new Ford Taurus coming and no it’s not coming to North America. With the dramatic decline in the sales of sedans in the United States, there aren’t many American automotive enthusiasts chomping at the bit to get their hands on a new Taurus. Sales of the last generation Taurus peaked just under 80,000 units in the U.S. in 2013, the only year it outsold the Mustang. Ford has focused on trucks because the market has clearly turned away from traditional passenger cars. The only market for models like the Taurus is in rental fleets and police package vehicles, neither of which makes as much money as selling SUVs and pickups, which is why Ford now focuses on those markets and makes just one passenger car in North America. A Market Crash is Coming - Epic Economist, Velocity, Everyman Driver Prices of new vehicles have dramatically jumped over the last few years, pricing many people out of the new vehicle market. This was caused by supply chain issues and a focus on higher-priced, and therefore higher-profit, models. A concentration on higher-priced models has skewed the average transaction price of new vehicles upwards. With better supplies of parts, additional production is planned for lower priced cars and trucks and this should lower the average transaction prices over time. Also, production growth around the world will fill the pipeline and increase dealer inventory to competitive levels. This is by no means a sign of a market apocalypse, but just natural market competition. Do not expect a Great Recession-like crash in the near term.  For the YouTube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6-2LEz7AGOY Find out how AFS can work for you: www.autoforecastsolutions.com Joe McCabe: jmccabe@autoforecastsolutions.com Sam Fiorani: sfiorani@autoforecastsolutions.com  

90 Seconds with AFS - Internet Rumors

Obituaries for the internal combustion engine are premature. Tighter emissions regulations have increased the demand for electric vehicles and better emissions controls make new gas engines amazingly clean. Despite that, the 1.5 billion vehicles on the road around the world still generate 12% of all greenhouse gases. Today’s EVs are practical for most everyday drivers leading governments to propose ICE bans. Laws limiting the use of ICE vehicles are on the rise. EV sales are growing year over year and will continue to do so, but maintaining this growth rate will be increasingly difficult. Combustion engines will power everyday vehicles beyond 2050. The most important reason will be in the hands of engineers. Engineers always step up to tackle hurdles. Since 1970, the light vehicle emissions have fallen roughly 99% while modern cars are more powerful and more reliable. Engineers will find answers to keep the ICE vehicles competitive for years to come. Only focusing on tailpipe emissions avoids larger pollution questions. Discussions continues about just how clean vehicles are, from the cradle to the grave, including acquiring the fuel, mining for components, and disposing of the vehicle at the end of its life. Globally by 2030, EVs will make up just 1/3 of total light vehicle production. New low emission fuels could help prolong the life of the ICE and hybridization continues to lower emissions. EVs will make up 50% of global production around 2040, meaning half of all vehicles in 17 years will still feature an internal combustion engine.  For the YouTube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCWa6bWPWQ4 Find out how AFS can work for you: www.autoforecastsolutions.com Joe McCabe: jmccabe@autoforecastsolutions.com Sam Fiorani: sfiorani@autoforecastsolutions.com      

90 Seconds with AFS - Internal Combustion Engine Future

May ended with strong light vehicle sales in the U.S. approximately 3.5% better than expected. Improving on last May by 22.7%, the market was propelled by huge gains from Mazda and Honda with Subaru also beating the market average. All reporting brands, except for Lincoln, showed year-over-year gains with only Toyota not improving by double-digits. While the month performed very well, the sales forecast for 2023 remains unchanged as the growing anxiety over interest rates and the rising potential of labor strikes in the fall are tempering additional enthusiasm. Retail buyers are ceding more of the market to fleets, which are still working to replace their aging vehicles. Incentives for retail buyers are growing in an attempt to offset the rising loan rates. The target for 2023 sits at 14.77 million units in the U.S. Like in the U.S., sales in Canada were about 3% above expectations. Trucks continue to experience share growth and the market is not far from where fewer than one out of ten light vehicles sold in the country will be traditional passenger cars. Few brands report detailed sales numbers, however Honda, Kia, Hyundai, and Lexus showed improved deliveries in May. Light vehicle sales of 1.64 million units remains the expectation for 2023. Mexico continues to show strength, with April and May besting numbers reported in 2019. Continued strong numbers have pushed the AFS forecast up to 1.27 million for 2023. Imports from China are definitely making a splash in Mexico with May marking the third straight month with sales of over 20,000 units shipped from the growing automotive powerhouse and reaching 18.5% market share. Vehicles from China made up just 5.4% of the market two years ago. For the YouTube video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60YhOWDrZPA Find out how AFS can work for you: www.autoforecastsolutions.com Joe McCabe: jmccabe@autoforecastsolutions.com Sam Fiorani: sfiorani@autoforecastsolutions.com  

Global Vehicle Disruption Analysis - March 2021

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