Our guest Mika Kastenholz shares his insights running a global, cross-asset class macro trading business within a major investment bank in this episode. We learn about potential volatility mismatches in the equity index and fixed income markets, distortions in the yield curve caused by regulatory changes, and a general decline in the appetite for risk taking in the banking sector post-2008. Mika also discusses the viability of crisis prediction using quantitative models, and positioning risk in the convertible bond market. This episode offers a rare perspective into the way a major sell side player thinks about risk and opportunity. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Hari on Twitter. Follow Mika on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps:  02:20 - Introduction to Mika Kastenholz 09:25 - Working with econophysics 10:52 - Finding the perfect size 12:05 - Mika's view on naive sizing 13:19 - The macro perspective 16:27 - Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve 18:46 - A changing environment 21:01 - The impact of post 2008 regulations 23:29 - Hedging the autocallable structures 29:30 - Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage 31:42 - Swing options - a relic of the past? 33:30 - Has the depth of the markets decreased? 35:31 - How does cross margining work...

GM44: Insights From Inside Credit Suisse  ft. Mika Kastenholz

Step into the fascinating realm of finance and investing with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and an amazing line-up of co-hosts as your guide. Each week, we engage in captivating conversations with renowned investors, esteemed economists, skilled traders, and visionary thought leaders. Discover the wisdom derived from their journeys, embracing their triumphs and learning from their setbacks. At TTU, we strive to ignite your independent thinking, encouraging you to chart your own path to financial success. Tune in to stay informed and inspired on the ever-evolving landscape of finance and investing. Stay up-to-date with our latest episodes and blogposts at https://toptradersunplugged.com

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In this episode we speak to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels. Koen is Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Fortis and Philippe is Chief Strategist. They are co-authors of The New World Economy in 5 Trends: Investing in Times of Superinflation, Hyperinnovation and Climate Transition. We talk about how technologies like AI, 3D printing will drive economic growth and why they are likely to create more jobs than they destroy. Another important trend from a market perspective is the potential for a doubling of the gold price and possibility of a new ‘super cycle’ for industrial metals.  ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book. Follow Koen on LinkedIn and read his book. Follow Philippe on LinkedIn and read his book. Episode TimeStamps:  02:16 - Introduction to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels 06:22 - Why haven't we seen higher productivity? 12:11 - What is the...

IL26: How New Technologies Will Shape the Economy ft. Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels

Mark Rzepczynski is back to discuss the latest investor sentiment survey from Societe Generale’s Capital Consulting team, to find out what strategies investors are losing interest in and which are seeing more demand right now. We also dig into how the performance of economies greatly depends on the type of government policies and how going from multilateralism to bilateralism impacts trend following, the complexity of being a systematic manager and the phalacy of consensus. Mark also explains why we need to look beyond price and consider the drivers of price, what the VUCA framework is and how/why to use it, whether trend following is becoming too complicated and much more. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Mark on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:39 - What has been on our radar recently? 06:59 - Which Alternative Strategies do Investors Want...latest survey? 12:17 - Discussing the data 18:30 - Industry performance update 21:26 - Is the rise of the Chinese stock market legit? 25:08 - From multilateralism to bilateralism 29:42 - The difference between the ideal vs. reality manager 36:31 - The fallacy of consensus 40:23 - Using economic data as a trend follower 43:14 - Is price truth? 47:38 - VUCA - what, why and how? 54:50 - Applying VUCA to trend following 57:46 - Is trend following becoming too complicated? Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights...

SI296: Is Trend Following Becoming Too Complicated? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Richard Urwin, Chair of the Investment Committee at Saranac Partners, the $6bn UK wealth manager, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how he is approaching asset allocation at the current juncture. They discuss how long term valuations and asset class return forecast help inform Saranac’s strategic asset allocation and delve into some of the structural forces that may influence the economic outlook and asset class returns in the coming decade. While shifting demographics, climate change, high deficits and rising debt levels all have the potential to contribute to higher inflation and higher bond yields, Richard is cautious about being too pessimistic about the outlook and sees good opportunity in credit and alternative assets and strategies. They also discuss how Saranac think about selecting and sizing hedge funds in their portfolios and how this has changed in a higher interest rate environment. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Richard on LinkedIn﻿﻿ Episode TimeStamps:  02:45 - Introduction to Richard Urwin 06:31 - A noticeable shift? 08:49 - What is Saranac's investment philosophy? 13:06 - Dealing with structural shifts as an asset allocator 18:07 - How confident are they in forecasts? 24:24 - Balancing competing forces 30:08 - How Saranac builds balanced portfolios 33:55 - Do they consider supply shocks in...

ALO24: Managing Money Through Structural Shifts ft. Richard Urwin

Together with Nick Baltas, we dive into trading signal direction and discuss if signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction, based on CFM’s paper on Agnostic Risk Parity. Baltas also explains why allocating risk to where opportunity lies is prudent as well as why trend following is a powerful tool to achieve a broad risk allocation. Based on Baltas’ recent paper in the Financial Times, we also discuss equity momentum and why trend followers might be the “unwanted guests at the party”. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Nick on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 00:52 - What has been on our radar recently? 12:36 - Industry performance update - how is May so far? 15:45 - New Ultimate Guide out now...How to get your Free copy! 16:38 - Q1, Peter: Should signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction? 27:39 - Q1.1 Peter: Is it reasonable to aim for broadly equal risk allocations across different asset classes? 35:19 - Q1.2 Peter: If you were an institutional investor with an ultra-long time horizon, a stomach for short-term volatility and a mandate to deliver the highest possible CAGR over the long-term, how much of your portfolio would you allocate to systematic trend-following? 39:22 - Q1.3 Peter: Do you agree with Anthony Todd's description of trend alpha coming in bursts? 46:54 - Discussing Nick's paper in the Financial Times 57:48 - What kind of party guest would a trend follower be? 59:09 - Thanks for...

SI295: Trend Followers - The Unwanted Party Guests? ft. Nick Baltas

In this episode, Tad Fallows, Founder of Long Angle, a community for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth investors,  joins Alan Dunne for a fascinating chat on how they approach asset allocation and find niche investment opportunities. Tad speaks about the typical risk appetite of his co-investors, highlighting how age and generation of wealth shape the risk profile of members. He talks about investments in private equity, alternative assets, and their investment strategies in the shifting macro landscape. Tad highlights why hedge funds may seem less appealing to them but why he has a lot of interest in trend following. He also speaks to some of the more esoteric investments his group makes such as whiskey aging, and talks about their crypto exposure. Finally, he highlights the importance of intuition and high conviction when making investment deals.  ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool ----- 
 Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Alan on Twitter. Follow Tad on LinkedIn. Episode TimeStamps:  02:34 - Introduction to Tad Fallows 12:38 - The risk appetite of Long Angle investors 15:45 - What defines the Long Angle community? 19:52 - Why not the traditional route? 23:14 - How are they allocated? 27:20 - How they incorporate private equity in their portfolio 35:02 - How much of their returns are resilient to changes in global macro? 40:18 - Micro or macro? 45:08 - Taking advantage of inefficiencies in...

GM44: Insights From Inside Credit Suisse ft. Mika Kastenholz

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