11.22.2023 - By Niels Kaastrup-Larsen
Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent. ----- EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool -----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast. Follow Cem on Twitter. Follow Dario on Twitter. Episode TimeStamps: 02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins 07:18 - Why is this cycle so different? 12:27 - Where are we now? 17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle? 23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB? 26:37 - A sticky inflation 28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields? 32:52 - A concern for real-estate? 38:03 - What is the next decade going to look like? 46:21 - Are central bankers bluffing? 51:15 - Will there be limits