Bigger Tent

Grandpa Tell Me About This Thing They Call...Inflation


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Inflation has become a historical term. We pretty much know what it is, but its been a long time since we've seen the real thing. Somewhat like those who lived through the Great Depression and were forever changed by it, many remember the days, weeks, months and years that inflation  raged. Its seeds were sown by mostly Democrats in the 1960s with the promise of great government giving us  a Great Society.  And then there was the Vietnam War. Not speaking of the human tragedy of Vietnam, but about the immense cost to the Treasury piggybacking the expansion of government seeking a Great Society.  But the new Nixon Administration could have killed the inflation baby in its crib, but chose to nurse it and feed it until it was a monster without regard for who it attacked and injured. Things maybe just got away from Nixon. Had he not been consumed by his own and his minions many screwups on the ethical and moral parts of life, he may with all his government smarts have been able to address the growing inflationary spiral. But saving himself was the priority and he and his own took their eye of the ball and whiffed terribly. They struck out and the Ford and Carter folks who followed were faced with inflation gone wild.  Inflation eroded the wages and savings of every individual and the profits of nearly every business. The medicine to knock out the disease of inflation had side affects that were almost as bad as the sickness. Fed Chairman Paul Volcker pushed interest rates up to nearly 20% and sure enough was able to crush the scourge of inflation. But the two back to back severe recessions that followed were crushing as well to Americans of all persuasions. The Fed from those days on recommitted to keeping inflation low and subdued for more than a generation. For almost 40 years inflation has been a non issue. The trade off economists say is economic growth that is not as robust as most would like it. Quietly and without fanfare the Federal Reserve has this year embarked on a new path attempting to continue to contain inflation, but to take some risk and simultaneously push a stronger economy that people (read politicians) want.  With this deliberate change in policy and the unleashing of pent up demand from the Pandemic has arrived the by-gone inflation of so many decade ago. 2021 has seen quarters of growth not seen in decades, but along with it inflation not seen in 13 years. Biden and Powell and Liberal believers in Modern Monetary Theory believe we can borrow and spend without the same concern and all will be fine -- so long as interest rates remain at historical low levels for historically low periods of time.  We talked in a previous episode about the Hot Hand Fallacy which says no one and nothing is ALWAYS a winner. Sooner or later the hot hand cools. Unfortunately we have become addicted to cheap money. This is not a throw away line. The Fed really cannot use the interest rate tool as it did for 100 years to tame inflation. If it did the cost to service our $27 trillion debt with higher rates would be literally impossible. All of this is partly the result of not having even one political party that truly and consistently believes in fiscal constraint and living within our means anymore. Folks, we are in a very tight spot -- and its getting tighter by the day. 

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Bigger TentBy steve lankenau