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Cracks seem to be appearing in Covid winners, as the sensitivity to earnings/guidance misses has grown, as exhibited by strong price declines for more "innovative" market darlings. These companies have a high likelihood of falling into the "overearning" camp, where expectations may be far too high, thus pull forward risk is underappreciated for the quality and durability of earnings growth in the future. They appear all offence and no defence! Investors shouldn't overlook the potential benefits of focusing on the "underearning" camp, particularly companies in the energy sector, where earnings are likely to be far higher and of better quality than market participants may be giving them credit for. It looks like what's "old" will be "new" again, and those investors and managers that are lacking energy may find themselves left out in the cold. - Rajiv Jain, GQG Partners. Earn 0.50 CE/CPD hrs on Portfolio Construction Forum
By Portfolio Construction ForumCracks seem to be appearing in Covid winners, as the sensitivity to earnings/guidance misses has grown, as exhibited by strong price declines for more "innovative" market darlings. These companies have a high likelihood of falling into the "overearning" camp, where expectations may be far too high, thus pull forward risk is underappreciated for the quality and durability of earnings growth in the future. They appear all offence and no defence! Investors shouldn't overlook the potential benefits of focusing on the "underearning" camp, particularly companies in the energy sector, where earnings are likely to be far higher and of better quality than market participants may be giving them credit for. It looks like what's "old" will be "new" again, and those investors and managers that are lacking energy may find themselves left out in the cold. - Rajiv Jain, GQG Partners. Earn 0.50 CE/CPD hrs on Portfolio Construction Forum