Artificial intelligence is transforming how we discover and develop new medicines. But how far can it really take us? In this episode, Jacob and Saloni trace the path of drug development from discovery to testing, manufacturing, and delivery. They explore where AI could speed things up, and where it still hits the limits of biology, data, and economics. They ask what it would take, beyond algorithms, to actually cure and eradicate diseases.

Hard Drugs is a new podcast from Works in Progress and Open Philanthropy about medical innovation presented by Saloni Dattani and Jacob Trefethen.

You can watch or listen on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.

Saloni’s substack newsletter: https://www.scientificdiscovery.dev/

Jacob’s blog: https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/ 

Chapters:
0:00:00 Intro
0:09:56 Drug discovery
1:02:20 Animal models
1:49:09 Drug efficacy
2:32:56 Drug safety
2:58:29 Manufacturing and healthcare
3:43:23 R&D funding
4:00:56 Trust and ambition
4:16:01 Summary

Blogposts:

• Claus Wilke (2025) We still can’t predict much of anything in biology https://blog.genesmindsmachines.com/p/we-still-cant-predict-much-of-anything 
• Elliot Hershberg (2025) What are virtual cells? https://centuryofbio.com/p/virtual-cell 
• Jacob Trefethen (2025) Blog series. 1) What does AI progress mean for medical progress? https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/ai-progress-medical-progress/ 2) AI will not suddenly lead to an Alzheimer’s cure https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/ai-san-francisco/ 3) AI could help lead to an Alzheimer’s cure https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/ai-optimism/ 

Articles:

• Wendi Yan (2024) Discovering an antimalarial drug in Mao’s China https://www.asimov.press/p/antimalarial-drug 
• Jason Crawford (2020) Innovation is not linear https://worksinprogress.co/issue/innovation-is-not-linear/ 
• Shayla Love (2025) An ‘impossible’ disease outbreak in the Alps https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2025/03/als-outbreak-montchavin-mystery/682096/ 
• Alex Telford (2024) Origins of the lab mouse https://www.asimov.press/p/lab-mouse 
• Jonathan Karr et al. (2012) A whole-cell computational model predicts phenotype from genotype https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3413483/ 
• Wen-Wei Liao et al. (2023) A draft human pangenome reference https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05896-x 
• Per-Ola Carlsson (2025) Survival of transplanted allogeneic beta cells with no immunosuppression https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2503822 
• Saloni Dattani (2024) Antipsychotic medications: a timeline of innovations and remaining challenges https://ourworldindata.org/antipsychotic-medications-timeline 
• Saloni Dattani (2024) What was the Golden Age of antibiotics, and how can we spark a new one? https://ourworldindata.org/golden-age-antibiotics 

Books:

• Sally Smith Hughes (2011) Genentech: The beginnings of biotech

Theses:

• Alvaro Schwalb (2025). Estimating the burden of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and the impact of population-wide screening for tuberculosis.

Acknowledgements:

• Aria Babu, editor at Works in Progress
• Graham Bessellieu, video editor
• Abhishaike Mahajan, cover art
• Atalanta Arden-Miller, art direction
• David Hackett, composer

Works in Progress & Open Philanthropy

[Minor correction: Since the 1980s, malaria challenge trials no longer involve hundreds of bites; in the past, volunteers received many bites for the exposure part of the trial rather than the challenge part.]

What if you could design a protein never seen in nature? In this episode, Jacob and Saloni explore how researchers are using new tools like RFDiffusion, AlphaFold, and ProteinMPNN to ‘hallucinate’ entirely novel proteins: designing them from scratch to solve problems evolution hasn’t tackled. They talk about how these technologies could transform medicine, agriculture, and materials science. Along the way, they reflect on the surprising ways AI is changing the process of science itself.

Hard Drugs is a new podcast from Works in Progress and Open Philanthropy about medical innovation presented by Saloni Dattani and Jacob Trefethen.

Saloni’s substack newsletter: https://www.scientificdiscovery.dev/

Jacob’s blog: https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/ 

Courses:

• EMBL-EBI. AlphaFold: A practical guide https://www.ebi.ac.uk/training/online/courses/alphafold/ 

Articles:

• Tanja Kortemme (2024) De novo protein design—From new structures to programmable functions https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(23)01402-2 
• Jie Zhu et al. (2021) Protein Assembly by Design https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.chemrev.1c00308 

Lectures:

• Rosetta Commons (2024) Diffusion models for protein structure generation (and design) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEnY2yA3jy8 
• Rosetta Commons (2024) AlphaFold – ML for protein structure prediction https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVrn8_8aKO8 
• Rosetta Commons (2024) MPNN – ML for protein sequence design https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6z4XmUAwdNA 

Acknowledgements:

• Aria Babu, editor at Works in Progress
• Graham Bessellieu, video editor
• Rachel Shu, on-site editor
• Anna Magpie, fact-checking
• Abhishaike Mahajan, cover art
• Atalanta Arden-Miller, art direction
• David Hackett, composer

Works in Progress & Open Philanthropy

Nature didn’t evolve all the proteins we need, but maybe artificial intelligence can help. Jacob and Saloni explore how tools like AlphaFold and ProteinMPNN are helping researchers re-engineer proteins, to make them safer, more stable, and more effective. They talk about how new technologies could help make a long-sought vaccine against Strep A, which causes scarlet fever and rheumatic heart disease, and how similar tools have already led to breakthroughs against COVID and RSV.

Hard Drugs is a new podcast from Works in Progress and Open Philanthropy about medical innovation presented by Saloni Dattani and Jacob Trefethen.

Saloni’s substack newsletter: https://www.scientificdiscovery.dev/

Jacob’s blog: https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/ 

Courses:

• EMBL-EBI. AlphaFold: A practical guide https://www.ebi.ac.uk/training/online/courses/alphafold/ 

Articles:

• Monica Jain et al. (2022) Exosite binding modulates the specificity of the immunomodulatory enzyme ScpA, a C5a inactivating bacterial protease. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9464890/ 
• Jakki Cooney et al. (2008) Crystal structure of C5a peptidase https://www.rcsb.org/structure/3EIF 
• Hui Li et al. (2017) Mutagenesis and immunological evaluation of group A streptococcal C5a peptidase as an antigen for vaccine development and as a carrier protein for glycoconjugate vaccine design https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2017/ra/c7ra07923k 

Lectures:

• Rosetta Commons (2024) AlphaFold – ML for protein structure prediction https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVrn8_8aKO8 
• Rosetta Commons (2024) MPNN – ML for protein sequence design https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6z4XmUAwdNA 

Acknowledgements:

• Aria Babu, editor at Works in Progress
• Graham Bessellieu, video editor
• Rachel Shu, on-site editor
• Anna Magpie, fact-checking
• Abhishaike Mahajan, cover art
• Atalanta Arden-Miller, art direction
• David Hackett, composer

Works in Progress & Open Philanthropy

[Correction: The structure of RSV's prefusion F protein was initially determined by X-ray crystallography by Jason McLellan and colleagues, rather than cryo-electron microscopy, although the latter was used to visualize antibody binding and confirm its structure.]

A hundred years ago, insulin was scraped from pig pancreases. Today, it’s made by bacteria in giant tanks. In the second part of a mini series on proteins, drug development and AI, Saloni tells the story of how insulin went from a crude animal extract to the first genetically-engineered drug, kickstarting the biotech industry along the way.

Hard Drugs is a new podcast from Works in Progress and Open Philanthropy about medical innovation presented by Saloni Dattani and Jacob Trefethen.

Saloni’s substack newsletter: https://www.scientificdiscovery.dev/

Jacob’s blog: https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/ 

Books:

• Genentech: The beginnings of biotech by Sally Smith Hughes

Articles:

• FDA (2007). Celebrating a Milestone: FDA's Approval of First Genetically-Engineered Product https://fda.report/media/110447/Celebrating-a-Milestone--FDA%27s-Approval-of-the-First-Genetircally-Engineered-Product.pdf 
• Genentech (2016). Cloning Insulin https://www.gene.com/stories/cloning-insulin 
• Arthur Riggs (2020). Making, Cloning, and the Expression of Human Insulin Genes in Bacteria: The Path to Humulin https://academic.oup.com/edrv/article/42/3/374/6042201 

Podcasts:

• Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) by the Acquired podcast https://www.acquired.fm/episodes/novo-nordisk-ozempic 

Acknowledgements:

• Aria Babu, editor at Works in Progress
• Adrian Bradley, on-site producer
• Anna Magpie, fact-checking
• Abhishaike Mahajan, cover art
• Atalanta Arden-Miller, art direction
• David Hackett, composer

Works in Progress & Open Philanthropy

This episode kicks off a mini-series on proteins, drug development and AI. Saloni and Jacob explore the world of proteins, including how proteins fold into complex shapes, why that complexity matters and how crowded and dynamic the inside of a cell really is; and they exchange surprising statistics about proteins.

Hard Drugs is a new podcast from Works in Progress and Open Philanthropy about medical innovation presented by Saloni Dattani and Jacob Trefethen.

You can watch or listen on YouTube, Spotify, or Apple Podcasts.

Saloni’s substack newsletter: https://www.scientificdiscovery.dev/

Jacob’s blog: https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/ 

Books:

• Ron Milo and Rob Phillips. Biology by the numbers https://book.bionumbers.org/ 
• Carl Ivar Branden and John Tooze (1999) Introduction to protein structure https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/mono/10.1201/9781136969898/introduction-protein-structure-john-tooze-carl-ivar-branden 

Articles:

• Niko McCarty (2023). Biology is a burrito. https://www.asimov.press/p/burrito-biology  
• Rhiannon Morris, Katrina Black, and Elliott Stollar (2022) Uncovering protein function: from classification to complexes. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9400073/ 
• Victor Muñoz and Michele Cerminara (2016) When fast is better: protein folding fundamentals and mechanisms from ultrafast approaches https://portlandpress.com/biochemj/article/473/17/2545/49248/When-fast-is-better-protein-folding-fundamentals 

Image credits:

• Chang et al. (2012) Egg white in organic electronics. https://spie.org/news/4149-egg-white-in-organic-electronics [diagram of egg white denaturing and cross-linking]
• John Kendrew’s model of myoglobin’s structure; via Carl Ivar Branden and John Tooze (1999) Introduction to protein structure.
• Carl Ivar Branden and John Tooze (1999) Introduction to protein structure. [diagram of amino acids and protein structure]
• Ron Milo and Rob Phillips. Which is bigger, mRNA or the protein it codes for? https://book.bionumbers.org/which-is-bigger-mrna-or-the-protein-it-codes-for/ [diagram of myoglobin mRNA vs protein]
• Scitable (2014). Microtubules and Filaments. https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/microtubules-and-filaments-14052932/ [diagram of microtubules]

Lenacapavir is a new HIV drug that blocks infections with an efficacy rate of nearly 100%, and it could completely change the fight against HIV worldwide. Saloni and Jacob talk about the development and prospects for this new drug, as well as the history of HIV, the initial discovery of retroviruses, and how HIV was transformed from a death sentence to a manageable condition.

Hard Drugs is a new podcast from Works in Progress and Open Philanthropy about medical innovation presented by Saloni Dattani and Jacob Trefethen.

Chapters:

00:00 Intro
03:52 How was HIV discovered? Where did it come from, and how does it attack the body and cause AIDS?
38:10 Antiretrovirals: How did scientists develop breakthrough HIV drugs — from azidothymidine to protease inhibitors to PrEP?
1:51:35 How does prevention and treatment work today?
2:19:03 HIV’s capsid and the breakthrough of lenacapavir, the first-approved HIV capsid inhibitor
2:50:36 How to develop long-lasting treatments
3:14:45 Lenacapavir’s near 100% efficacy in clinical trials
3:48:40 The impact of global programs against HIV, and can we now end HIV?

Saloni’s substack newsletter: https://www.scientificdiscovery.dev/

Jacob’s blog: https://blog.jacobtrefethen.com/ 

Books:

• How to Survive a Plague — by David France (2016). [Mentioned as a history of the science and activism against the AIDS epidemic, and the protease-inhibitor breakthrough.] https://surviveaplague.com/ 
• And the Band Played On — Randy Shilts (1987). [Mentioned as an account of the early years of AIDS.] https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780312374631/andthebandplayedon/ 
• Drug development stories: From bench to bedside — Elsevier (2024). [Mentioned as containing a history of the development of lenacapavir] https://shop.elsevier.com/books/drug-discovery-stories/yu/978-0-443-23932-8 

Retrospectives:

• The development of antiretroviral therapy and its impact on the HIV-1/AIDS pandemic — Samuel Broder (2015). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.antiviral.2009.10.002 
• History of the discoveries of the first human retroviruses: HTLV-1 and HTLV-2 — Robert Gallo (2005). https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.onc.1208980 
• A Look at Long Acting Drugs — Anne de Bruyn Kops for Open Philanthropy (2025). https://bit.ly/long-acting-drugs-op 
• How To Save Twenty Million Lives, with Dr Mark Dybul — Statecraft (2023)  https://www.statecraft.pub/p/saving-twenty-million-lives 
• The Road to Fortovase. A History of Saquinavir, the First Human Immunodeficiency Virus Protease Inhibitor — Redshaw et al. (2000) https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-57092-6_1 

Articles:

• The origin of genetic diversity in HIV-1 — Smyth et al. (2012). [Mentioned as a review about HIV’s recombination, which described it as “a primitive form of sexual reproduction”] https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168170212002122 
• PF74 Reinforces the HIV-1 Capsid To Impair Reverse Transcription-Induced Uncoating — Rankovic et al. (2018) https://doi.org/10.1128/JVI.00845-18 
• Twice-Yearly Lenacapavir for HIV Prevention in Men and Gender-Diverse Persons — Kelley et al. (2024) https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2411858 
• Twice-Yearly Lenacapavir or Daily F/TAF for HIV Prevention in Cisgender Women — Bekker et al. (2024) https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2407001 
• The evolution of HIV-1 and the origin of AIDS — Sharp and Hahn (2010) https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2010.0031 
• Pathogenic mechanisms of HIV disease — Moir et al. (2011) https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-pathol-011110-130254 
• Estimating per-act HIV transmission risk: a systematic review — Patel et al. (2012) https://journals.lww.com/aidsonline/fulltext/2014/06190/Estimating_per_act_HIV_transmission_risk__a.14.aspx 
• The structural biology of HIV-1: mechanistic and therapeutic insights — Engelman and Cherepanov (2012) https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro2747 
• Challenges and opportunities in the development of complex generic long-acting injectable drug products — O’Brien et al. (2021) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jconrel.2021.06.017 
• Making a “Miracle” HIV Medicine — Nahas (2025) https://press.asimov.com/articles/hiv-medicine 
• Highly active antiretroviral therapy transformed the lives of people with HIV — Dattani (2024) https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/highly-active-antiretroviral-therapy-transformed-the-lives-of-people-with-hiv 

Videos:

• Mini-Lecture Series: HIV Capsid Inhibitors: Mechanism of Action — David Spach, National HIV Curriculum (2024) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZ9KDxV5Zbs&ab_channel=NationalHIVCurriculum 

Image credits:

• Mini-Lecture Series: HIV Capsid Inhibitors: Mechanism of Action — David Spach, National HIV Curriculum (2024) [Multiple diagrams of HIV capsid and lenacapavir’s effect.]
• Saloni Dattani; Our World in Data (2024) Highly active antiretroviral therapy transformed the lives of people with HIV. [Graph of decline in HIV/AIDS mortality after HAART was introduced.]
• Engelman and Cherepanov (2012). The structural biology of HIV-1: mechanistic and therapeutic insights. [Diagram of HIV’s entry into the cell.]
• Susan Moir, Tae-Wook Chun, Anthony S Fauci (2011). Pathogenic mechanisms of HIV disease. [Diagram of HIV replication rates over time, contrasting acute and chronic infection.]
• Saloni Dattani, adapted from Patel et al. (2014). Estimating per-act HIV transmission risk: a systematic review. [Bar chart of risks of contracting HIV from different sources when unprotected.]
• Thomas Splettstoesser under CC-BY. [Diagram of HIV’s internal structure.]
• Twice-Yearly Lenacapavir or Daily F/TAF for HIV Prevention in Cisgender Women — Bekker et al. (2024) [Chart of lenacapavir’s efficacy.]
• Our World in Data based on Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (2024). [Chart of global HIV deaths over time.]

Acknowledgements:

• Douglas Chukwu, researcher at Open Philanthropy
• Sanela Rankovic, Acting Instructor at the Institute for...

Hard Drugs is a new podcast about medical innovation: how to speed it up, how to scale it up, and how to make sure lifesaving tools reach the people who need them the most.

Presented and written by Saloni Dattani and Jacob Trefethen. Brought to you by Works in Progress and Open Philanthropy.