The use of drones for military purposes has a long history. The concept dates to World War I, and pilotless explosive-laden aircraft were used extensively by Germany in World War II. Remotely controlled precision attack drones were developed by the United States near the end of World War II, but despite predictions in the many decades after that war, crewed combat aircraft continued to rule the combat zone. The experience in Ukraine this year, however, suggests that there may be a radical change in that military doctrine. Swarms of accurate, low-cost combat and reconnaissance drones may now make it possible for a warring nation to overwhelm even sophisticated air defence systems, including piloted fighter aircraft. This shift in the definition of air superiority would be the first change in the doctrine of aerial warfare in a century. And cost engineering is key.

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