The Jun PMI manufacturing came in at 53 vs 56.1 the month prior. Extended the correctly forecast downtrend this year that signaled a slower economy.

The business cycle model shows a time frame for an end of economy and stock market rout.

I show the long-term performance of the PMI as indicator of the US economy with a business cycle perspective.

Are we in a recession? If not will we be so? And what of the business cycle this decade?