In Episode 449 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Chase Taylor, head of research at Bulwark Capital Management and founder of Pinecone Macro Research about investment opportunities around the buildout of the new "electric stack" and the AI CapEx Boom that relies on them.

Chase and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode exploring his methodology, how he extracts signals from noise, and why a multidisciplinary approach to investing is especially important during periods of disruptive sociopolitical and technological change like the kind we are experiencing today. They then apply these ideas to two important technological trends underway in the global economy: (1) the transformation of the so-called "electric stack" or electro-industrial stack and (2) the AI CapEx Boom that relies on it.

They begin with a deep-dive exploration of the dramatic cost declines happening across the entire electric stack, beginning with the addition of new sources of energy, advancements in battery technology for storage, the use of magnets and motors that turn electricity into mechanical motion, power electronics that shape it into the precise force needed by today's technologies, and the embedded compute that orchestrates and decides how and when to put that force into action.

They discuss the sources of China's dominance in this industry, the horizontal complementarities in its manufacturing ecosystems, the advantages of vertical integration, and what America and Europe need to do in order to remain competitive in this new industrial ecosystem.

The second hour is devoted to exploring the implications for investors of the current AI CapEx boom, how the USD might behave in a growth slowdown scenario post-Liberation Day, and what the Trump administration's military and covert action threats against Maduro's regime in Venezuela can tell us about his foreign policy and whether we are returning to a more colonial phase of domination by the American empire over the Western hemisphere.

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Episode Recorded on 11/10/2025

In Episode 448 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Nathan Benaich, founder and general partner of Air Street Capital and the creator of the annual State of AI Report, an open-access compendium that tracks advances across AI research, industry, policy, and geopolitics.

Nathan Benaich and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation exploring some of the most important AI breakthroughs of the year. They unpack the DeepSeek moment, dig into some of the advancements made by the latest reasoning models, and discuss why there appears to be a regression in capabilities across certain domains in artificial intelligence at the same time as we are seeing marked improvements in reasoning-heavy use cases like coding and scientific research.

The second hour turns to a conversation about the commercial implications and geopolitical dynamics of the AI arms race, including China's strategy to become the leader in open-weight models and tooling. They look at what industries, sectors, and professions may be most ripe for disruption, where the investment opportunities are, whether we're in a bubble comparable to the 1990s Internet boom, and how export controls, energy constraints, and regulatory red-tape could play an outsized role in shaping the trajectory of the current arms race.

Lastly, Kofinas and Benaich examine where along the AI stack most of the value is likely to accrue—from the underlying picks and shovels, through the foundation models, to the apps that ride on top of them—and what all this means for labor markets, education, and the cadence of scientific discovery.

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Episode Recorded on 10/29/2025

Demetri Kofinas speaks with financial historian and investor Russell Napier about his "Practical History of Financial Markets" online course, which is provided in conjunction with Edinburgh Business School.

Hidden Forces premium subscribers can sign up using their subscriber email + code "HF50" for a generous 50% DISCOUNT. Genius members can access the course for an even more generous discount of 75%. Sign up today at libraryofmistakes.com/course.

The course runs in three formats: a ~14-hour online version; a two-and-a-half-day in-person version in London (capped at about 30 people); and a university version for mostly post-grad students. This is not just for professionals—many attendees are principals or retail savers who feel responsible for managing their and their families' wealth.

The course is "radically different" from standard finance classes. Instead of starting from pricing theory or discounted cash flow, it takes a historical approach to asset valuation across equities, bonds, cash, commodities, and property, asking the question: "what repeatable conditions caused valuations to change?" The course leans heavily on long-run U.S. and international data, examines market behavior in different monetary and inflation regimes, and includes a module on investing in periods of inflation, disinflation, and deflation.

After completing this course, you should be able to:

✔️ Critically evaluate different methods of valuing stock markets and identify faults in the valuation methods.

✔️ Explain the idea of mean reversion in financial markets and identify valuation techniques that follow mean reversion using data from the last 100 years to demonstrate this.

✔️ Understand the impact inflationary or deflationary forces have on the returns to different classes of financial assets.

✔️ Understand the impact liquidity and the supply of money has on stock market returns over time.

✔️ Understand the impact of psychological biases on returns in the stock market and the role that they can play in major stock market events.

✔️ Critically evaluate the lessons from the history of the financial markets over the past 200 years or more.

As Russell has often said, "when regime change occurs, the greatest risk for any investor is to get all the right answers to all the wrong questions." The ultimate goal of this course is to teach people how to find and ask the RIGHT questions.

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Episode Recorded on 10/31/2025

Episode 447 is the tenth installment in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with Peter Atwater, a recognized expert on the impact of confidence and mood on individual and group decision-making. Peter's work has been instrumental not only in helping his clients, students, and readers understand how people make decisions under conditions of chaos and uncertainty, but also in showing how to use those insights to gain a competitive advantage.

The three begin their conversation by mapping out Peter's Confidence Quadrant and using it to explain how individuals and crowds move between feelings of high and low certainty and control. They explore the immense contemporary pressure people feel to conform—particularly on social media and in an educational system that rewards conformity. They discuss financial nihilism, the search for community in unusual places, and why real, in-person networks, relationships, and conversations matter now more than ever.

The second half of the episode turns to the political economy of confidence: the rise of leader-centric movements, the fragility of "passenger-seat" societies, the lasting impact of COVID, and the "velvet-rope" economy that has transformed everything from airline cabins to financing. They discuss wealth stratification, powerlessness, the risks of a genuine socialist revolution, the search for leadership, and practical ways individuals can regain agency—through epistemic hygiene, disciplined storytelling, and service to others.

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Episode Recorded on 10/23/2025

In Episode 446 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with geopolitical analyst and forecaster Kamran Bokhari about Trump's 20-point Gaza peace plan and the new security order taking shape in the Middle East.

Kamran first appeared on Hidden Forces in the days following the October 7th attacks to discuss the wider war unfolding between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, and how Hamas's attacks could serve as a catalyst for the remaking of the modern Middle East. In his subsequent appearances, he has provided critical context for understanding U.S., Israeli, and Iranian strategic aims and limitations, as well as the interests and constraints of other states in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey.

For all intents and purposes, Israel has won its war against the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has decimated both its conventional and unconventional forces and revealed to its proxies, affiliates, and supporters across the region—and even to its own people—that Iran is a weak and tottering power. With the initiation of Trump's 20-point Gaza peace plan and the cessation of hostilities in the Gaza Strip, we may be witnessing the emergence of a new security order in the Middle East—one that relies more on regional stakeholders, allowing the United States to reduce its direct exposure and the commitment of U.S. forces while still maintaining influence over regional politics.

Kamran and Demetri spend the first hour of their conversation recapping the Middle East's transformation over the last two years. They revisit Israel's systematic campaign against Hezbollah's leadership, the subsequent collapse of the Assad regime, and the consequences of the U.S.'s strategic strikes on Iran's known nuclear facilities. They also discuss the diplomatic fallout from Israel's recent attacks in Qatar, Prime Minister Netanyahu's subsequent apology call from the White House, and Washington's push for an international stabilization force in Gaza led by regional partners.

The second hour turns to what a new regional security architecture could look like and how U.S. strategy is shifting from direct management to burden-sharing among regional powers such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. They explore the practical implications of this emerging arrangement for Gaza—including discussions about an Arab-Muslim stabilization force, governance over the Palestinian territories, and a long reconstruction financed by Gulf and international donors—while setting realistic expectations for the creation of an independent Palestinian political entity over the next decade.

They conclude by assessing which countries stand to gain the most from Iran's retreat and the decimation of its proxies, closing with a frank discussion about America's polarized media ecosystem and the growing anti-Israel and antisemitic sentiments being expressed on both the American left and right.

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Episode Recorded on 10/20/2025

Episode 445 is the ninth installment in the Hundred Year Pivot podcast series. In it, Demetri Kofinas and Grant Williams speak with Roger Mitchell, an entrepreneur and writer whose essay "The Answer Was Here All the Time," published in Grant Williams's 2025 compendium, explores faith, meaning, and the search for moral grounding in a contemporary West that feels increasingly unmoored and in epistemic freefall.

The conversation begins with a diagnosis of the cultural and spiritual malaise that seems to have taken hold of Western societies: the fraying of the social contract, the "boomer blues," as Roger Mitchell calls them, and why life inside "the machine" leaves us lonely, angry, afraid, and in dire need of real human contact.

The second half of the episode turns to a discussion about the dangers of politicizing religion and weaponizing faith in response to growing social and existential angst in Western societies. Demetri, Grant, and Roger explore Europe's identity crisis, the destabilizing effects of uncontrolled immigration, the cultural consequences of collapsing birth rates, the economic and social tragedy facing younger generations, and the broader epistemic collapse that has made consensus-building nearly impossible and replaced reasoned debate with a totalizing ambition for political domination.

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Episode Recorded on 10/10/2025

In Episode 444 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Dan Wang, author of Breakneck: China's Quest to Engineer the Future, about his pioneering new framework that compares the U.S. and China not along ideological lines or modes of governance, but by state capacity and the propensity to build.

According to Dan Wang, China is an "engineering state," focused on building big projects and diffusing technologies across its economy, while America is a "lawyerly society" that has become proficient at protecting what it has and obstructing progress in areas that are vital for its long-term prosperity. Kofinas and Wang compare each nation's leadership—staffed by engineers and mega-project managers in China and litigators and regulators in America—against each other and against each country's own history, and examine when and why the United States, in particular, went from being a country that excelled in constructing things to one more concerned with obstruction and safeguarding a comfortable way of life for the wealthiest and older segments of society.

The second hour is devoted to a discussion about the failures and unintended consequences of China's engineering state, most notably the devastating human impact of its one-child and zero-COVID policies. They also explore the similarities between the American and Chinese people, the prospects for conflict between the two superpowers, and what policies the United States can implement to get back to building again—like reforming immigration, advancing clean energy development, permitting the buildout of more housing, and increasing funding for basic scientific research and development.

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Episode Recorded on 10/06/2025

In Episode 443 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with former investment banker turned global strategist Viktor Shvets, whose books The Great Rupture and The Twilight Before the Storm provide an audaciously comprehensive and compelling framework for understanding the forces shaping our world. These include technology and finance, amplified by climate change, demographics, and a series of socioeconomic and geopolitical shocks that have created the once-in-a-century superstorm now enveloping Western democracies.

Viktor and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode exploring Shvets' central critique of neoliberalism and why he believes that much of the current crisis stems from this failed ideology. They compare today's sociopolitical and economic dynamics to those that overtook the world in the 1930s, focusing on technology-driven social disruption, a decline in the marginal utility of labor, runaway asset prices, repeated financial shocks, pandemics, climate stress, migration, and a deep loss of faith in institutions, in our collective identity, and in our shared capacity to solve problems.

The second hour turns to questions of policy design, institutional reform, and portfolio strategy. Viktor and Demetri debate the pros and cons of redistributive solutions such as universal basic income and more heavy-handed fixes to America's broken healthcare system and antiquated educational model. They also stress-test alternative modes of sociopolitical organization such as despotic feudalism, techno-communism, or models that attempt to better balance the more extreme outcomes that a highly technologized society like ours would produce.

The two end the episode with a conversation about digital currencies and the disruptive potential that decentralized finance will have on money and banking. Kofinas also asks Shvets what assets he believes will outperform if governments are able to institute the types of reforms that he believes are necessary, and similarly, what assets investors will want to own if we trend toward some of the darker scenarios that he envisions.

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Episode Recorded on 09/29/2025

In Episode 442 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Kurt Campbell and Rush Doshi. Kurt is the chairman and co-founder of The Asia Group and served as the United States Deputy Secretary of State in the Joe Biden administration and as the Indo-Pacific Coordinator from 2021 to 2024. Rush also served under the previous administration in his capacity as the Deputy Senior Director for China and Taiwan Affairs on the National Security Council and is the author of the extremely influential book, "The Long Game: China's Grand Strategy to Displace American Order."

Kofinas, Doshi, and Campbell spend the first hour of their conversation discussing the nature of China's rise and the challenges it poses to American power, both in terms of its economic, technological, and military development and the scale at which it operates. They also explore the limitations of a 'go-it-alone' approach to great power competition in this new century and the importance of achieving what Kurt and Rush call "allied scale"—the notion that America's decisive advantage comes from its network of alliances. This first hour also includes a series of historical deep dives ranging from the Cold War and the Anglo-German rivalry to America's own period of rapid industrial development beginning in the late 19th century, how American industrial capacity proved decisive in shaping the balance of power in the 20th, and the lessons that can be learned when applying this history to the Chinese economy today.

The second hour is devoted to a conversation about what "allied scale" would look like in practice, the steps that would need to be taken in order to get us there, and the obstacles the United States and its historical allies face in implementing this approach. Demetri also asks Kurt and Rush whether the United States may be exaggerating the threat that China poses at the expense of more important domestic priorities, and the consequences to the stamina of America's alliances and the durability of international peace and security if it is.

The three conclude the second hour with an important conversation about Taiwan, including military contingencies, the diplomacy of deterrence, the public support (or lack thereof) for any type of security commitments to Taipei, and whether the United States is even in a position to win a war in the Pacific.

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Episode Recorded on 09/23/2025

In Episode 441 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, about the profound transformations underway in the global economy driven by America's transition away from being the world's primary insurance provider for international security to its exploiter-in-chief.

In a recently published Foreign Affairs essay titled "The New Economic Geography: Who Profits in a Post-American World?" Adam compares America's role in the post-World War II era to that of an insurance provider, underwriting global security by protecting international shipping lanes, providing deep and liquid capital markets, and enforcing international laws and standards that have formed the bedrock of the last 80 years of economic growth and prosperity.

Kofinas and Posen spend the first hour of this episode digging into Adam's insurance framework and why he believes the United States was the largest beneficiary of the system it created. They discuss some of the recent policy changes out of Washington and why they are transforming America's sphere of influence into something that looks more like a system of exploitation than a market for affordable insurance.

Adam Posen draws implications for the continued role of US Treasuries as a global safe asset and whether a reduction of foreign capital flows into dollars will ultimately prove stimulative for the resurrection of industrial ecosystems that the administration has identified as vital to American national security and the long-term prosperity of the United States. The two also consider the degree to which the increased premiums that Washington is now charging its allies can be justified by rising risks in the international security environment and by the unpopularity among the MAGA base for foreign U.S. involvement.

The second hour of their conversation turns to questions of execution—specifically, what is required for the successful implementation of a U.S. industrial policy. This includes a discussion about apprenticeships, skilled immigration, government-supported R&D, federal funding for university science and technology programs, and more integration and collaboration with allied economies.

Posen and Kofinas also discuss why the use of tariffs, subsidies, and export controls—including the CHIPS and Science Act—implemented during both Joe Biden's and Donald Trump's administrations have underdelivered. They also examine why the current administration's trade policies have been oddly more accommodative toward China than toward America's closest allies and why this will ultimately prove to be a losing strategy in the long-term.

Lastly, Demetri asks Adam for his view on what the recent battles between the Fed and the White House mean for the future of Fed independence and if Washington is laying the groundwork for a long-term rise in inflation expectations as it seeks to monetize its debt and deficits through an increasingly compliant and captured central bank.

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Episode Recorded on 09/16/2025