A major new Ipsos poll drops — and the implications for Holyrood 2026 are huge. The SNP hold a stable lead. Labour has fallen sharply. Reform UK has surged into second place in the constituency vote, fuelled by the rise of immigration as a top concern for Scottish voters.

• Why Reform UK is gaining Scottish voters from both Labour and the Conservatives

• How immigration became a top-three issue in Scottish politics

• Why the SNP vote remains “sticky”

• Labour’s worsening poll numbers after Keir Starmer’s difficult months

• The Greens’ highly effective regional-vote strategy

• Whether Reform has reached its ceiling in Scotland

• What demographic groups are driving Reform’s rise

We also speak to Mark McGeoghegan of Ipsos, who analyses the polling in depth — approval ratings, demographic breakdowns, voting-intention shifts, and how Scottish voters feel about taxation and public spending.

And later: an interview with Michael Matheson, the outgoing SNP MSP, and former Transport Secretary. Will the A9 ever be fully dualled? Has the Scottish Government failed on delivery? Matheson responds.

Finally, we react to your messages about Malcolm Offord’s defection to Reform UK, including whether he boosts their credibility, fundraising and appeal — or whether he’s tied to rhetoric that will hurt the party in Scotland.

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Former Conservative Minister Malcolm Offord has defected from the Scottish Conservatives to Reform UK — and he joins Calum, Geoff and Andy for an in depth reaction.

In this flash episode, Offord details why he left the Conservative Party, why he believes Reform UK offers a “centre-right alternative” in Scotland, and how energy policy, the economy, welfare, and Scotland’s political direction shaped his decision.

The conversation covers:

• Why Offord says the Scottish Conservatives “gave up”

• His critique of UK energy policy and the 30-year failure of wind subsidies

• Whether Reform UK is actually “far-right”

• Nigel Farage, Scottish identity & the question of English nationalism

• What Reform UK would do on immigration, welfare & work

• Geoff and Andy challenge Offord on Richard Tice’s letter to energy companies

• Could Reform UK hurt Scotland’s renewables industry?

• Would Offord debate Swinney, Sarwar, Findlay in 2026?

• Could Reform UK do a deal with the Conservatives?

• Is this the beginning of a major shift in Scottish centre-right politics?

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The fallout from Rachel Reeves’ first Labour budget has dominated Scottish politics — and in this episode of Holyrood Sources, recorded live in Malone’s Pub in Edinburgh, we unpack the political chaos, the polling shockwaves, and what it all means for the 2026 Holyrood election.

This episode previews our live Christmas special and pub quiz, and dives into budget politics, polling trends, and party strategy across the UK.

👇 Tell us what you think in the comments.

👇 Should Rachel Reeves resign?

👇 Is Scottish Labour in trouble for 2026?

We also take your questions which have come in from listeners all over Scotland.

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In today’s deep-dive episode of Holyrood Sources, we break down one of the most contentious and politically charged budgets in years — Rachel Reeves’ first full Labour Budget. With Scotland at the centre of the economic and political fallout, the team scrutinises what this Budget means for Scottish jobs, taxation, public services, welfare, the North Sea, and the Scottish Government’s own finances ahead of its budget in January.

Calum Macdonald, Geoff Aberdein and Andy Maciver offer a forensic, often fiery discussion about the political strategy behind the Budget, the reaction from business, the impact on the working-class vote, and why Scotland’s oil and gas sector has been thrown into turmoil.

We are also joined by Mairi Spowage, Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute, who delivers an expert, evidence-based explanation of what the Budget really means for Scotland’s economy, the Barnett consequentials, and the decisions now facing the Scottish Government.

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In this episode of the Holyrood Sources podcast, hosts Calum MacDonald, Geoff Aberdein, and Andy Maciver are joined by Scottish Conservative MSP Maurice Golden

In this episode, we chat about:

🔹 Budget Day – Rachel Reeves’ survival strategy, the U-turn on income tax, the OBR downgrading UK growth, and how Labour MPs may break with leadership.

🔹 Reform UK’s surge – After a razor-thin by-election in Dumfries & Galloway, what does Reform’s rise mean for the Scottish Tories?

🔹 Maurice Golden’s candid take – On why the Conservatives can’t “out-Reform Reform”, populist positioning under Russell Findlay, and internal disagreements over energy policy.

🔹 The Net Zero fight – Offshore wind vs fishing, oil & gas realities, community benefit, and whether the Conservatives now want a moratorium on offshore wind.

🔹 Scottish infrastructure and manifesto strategy – A9 dualling, airport links, ports, rail freight, and whether voters want practical projects or political theatre.

🔹 Inside the Scottish Parliament exodus – With over 40 MSPs standing down, what does that mean for the quality of debate?

👉 Subscribe for full episodes, political insight, and analysis ahead of the 2026 Scottish Parliamentary Election.

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Scotland are going to the World Cup — and the Holyrood Sources team are buzzing. But after the celebrations, Geoff, Andy and Calum dig into a huge week in Scottish and UK politics.

➡️ ExxonMobil shuts Mossmorran, putting 400 jobs at risk — Geoff explains why government policy has directly contributed and why this marks a deeper de-industrialisation crisis in Scotland.

➡️ Fresh YouGov polling reveals a dramatic collapse in support for Scottish Labour and a worrying ceiling for the SNP. Andy breaks down why a populist insurgency could now happen in Scotland.

➡️ Pam Duncan-Glancy MSP joins the podcast to explain why she opposes the Assisted Dying Bill — and why key safeguards have been rejected.

Scotland’s biggest politics podcast — with insider analysis from across the political divide. Hosted by Calum Macdonald, Geoff Aberdein (former Chief of Staff to Alex Salmond) and Andy Maciver (former Director of Comms, Scottish Conservatives).

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Labour civil war erupts just weeks before a make-or-break Budget. In this explosive Holyrood Sources episode, Calum Macdonald, Geoff Aberdein and Andy Maciver unpack the extraordinary Number 10 briefing against Wes Streeting — and what it reveals about Keir Starmer’s leadership, Labour’s internal divisions, and the growing panic over a potential leadership challenge.

From Anas Sarwar’s impossible position defending a tax rise in Scotland, to Labour’s identity crisis and Morgan McSweeney’s role in the chaos, the team dissects the biggest political drama since the election.

Later, they turn to the Port of Aberdeen’s job cuts, Geoff’s viral LinkedIn post about the energy transition, and the latest twist in ScotWind, as Shell walks away from a £3 billion renewables project.

Plus, we have a heated debate on the BBC Panorama editing scandal, questions of institutional bias, and whether Scots should be forced to fund a broadcaster that some say favours the “soft left.” The panel discusses Tim Davie’s resignation, the role of BBC Scotland, the challenge of local news, and the license-fee debate — before moving on to Scotland’s budget pressure and the possibility of revisiting an income-tax pledge amid Westminster fiscal changes (Shona Robison & Anas Sarwar clips included).

Key topics:

• BBC Panorama editing controversy and fallout

• Institutional bias: can any broadcaster be truly impartial?

• BBC Scotland, local news coverage and the “central belt” problem

• Licence fee debate: compulsory funding vs subscription choice

• Scotland’s fiscal squeeze: Shona Robison on budget risk & Anas Sarwar on lobbying the Chancellor

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What happens when Labour breaks its biggest election promise?

This week on Holyrood Sources, Calum Macdonald, Geoff Aberdein (former Chief of Staff to Alex Salmond), and Andy Maciver (former Scottish Conservative comms director) unpack Rachel Reeves’ budget gamble — and why it could reshape Scottish politics.

We break down:

• 💸 How Labour’s tax rise could hit Scottish voters
• ⚖️ The political fallout for Rachel Reeves and Anas Sarwar
• 🏴 What it means for Holyrood’s income tax powers
• 🥃 John Swinney’s whisky diplomacy and Douglas Alexander’s criticism
• 📊 Plus: Why 2026’s no-overnight count election will feel totally different

Later, Liberal Democrat MSP Liam McArthur joins us to discuss the Assisted Dying Bill — with almost 300 amendments under scrutiny, is Holyrood getting it right?

📍 Chapters below

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Scotland is heading into one of its most unpredictable elections ever — and the usual rules of politics might not apply.

In this episode of Holyrood Sources, Calum Macdonald, Geoff Aberdein (former Chief of Staff to Alex Salmond) and Andy Maciver (former Scottish Conservative comms director) unpack the key trends shaping Scotland right now:.

💬 Join the debate:

Who wins Scotland’s next election — the SNP, Labour, or Reform UK?

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Labour’s century-long dominance in Wales could be about to collapse — with polls showing Reform UK and Plaid Cymru overtaking them in the Caerphilly by-election.

In this week’s Holyrood Sources, Calum Macdonald, Geoff Aberdein (former Chief of Staff to Alex Salmond) and Andy Maciver (former Scottish Conservative communications director) unpack:

🗳️ The Wales by-election and what a Labour defeat would mean for Keir Starmer’s leadership

🔥 Is Ed Miliband plotting a leadership comeback? Why he might be on manoeuvres after months of internal tension

🏴 Scottish independence — and why Labour’s defence minister warns it could “help Putin”

💷 Rachel Reeves’ upcoming Budget: tax hikes, income reform, and political messaging chaos

🌍 Chinese investment in Scottish renewables: national security vs economic growth

Plus: Trident submarines, Starmer’s strategy, and what Labour’s polling collapse tells us about British politics.

🎧 Subscribe for weekly insider analysis from Holyrood Sources – the podcast that takes you inside Scottish politics.

📩 Email: [email protected]

🎙️ Also listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and all major platforms.

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