The US housing industry is currently experiencing a slowdown, with recent market movements indicating a deceleration in price appreciation and a decrease in housing starts. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally-adjusted national home price index, house prices rose by a modest 3.8% year-over-year in January 2023, a sharp slowdown from the prior year's 19.28% increase[1]. This trend continues, with the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index showing a 4.3% increase in house prices between the third quarter of 2023 and the third quarter of 2024, and a 0.7% increase from the second quarter of 2024[5].
Housing starts have also declined, with a 0.5% decrease from August and a 0.7% decrease from last September, primarily due to a slowdown in multifamily construction[3]. The total inventory of new houses for sale as of February 2023 was 436,000 units, equivalent to an 8.2 months' supply[1].
The housing market is plagued by a shortage of housing units for rent and for sale, with an estimated national housing shortage of 3.7 million units as of Q3 2024[3]. This shortage is attributed to high mortgage rates and low affordability, which have impacted the homeownership rate. The homeownership rate was slightly lower at 65.6% in Q3 2024 compared to 66% in Q3 2023[3].
In response to these challenges, homebuilders are using sales incentives to make new homes more attractive to potential buyers. However, building conditions are expected to remain poor in the near term, with the National Association of Home Builders' Housing Market Index remaining below 50 since August 2023[3].
The US housing industry is also facing regulatory changes, with the Biden administration's American Jobs Plan aiming to invest in affordable, accessible, energy-efficient, and resilient housing[2]. However, the plan's impact on the housing market is yet to be seen.
In terms of shifts in consumer behavior, there is a growing demand for rental units, with renter-occupied units increasing by 1.1 million units from 44.3 million in Q3 2023 to 45.5 million in Q3 2024[3]. This trend is expected to continue, with the housing market remaining undersupplied relative to long-run housing demand.
Overall, the US housing industry is experiencing a slowdown, with high mortgage rates and low affordability impacting the market. However, there are opportunities for growth, particularly in the rental market, and industry leaders are responding to current challenges by using sales incentives and investing in affordable housing.
This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI