In this episode of Tea and Crumpets, Will Brown and Adam Eagleston dive into a rapidly evolving geopolitical and economic landscape shaped by escalating tensions in the Middle East. With a fragile ceasefire in place and ongoing uncertainty surrounding key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz, the conversation explores how quickly conditions on the ground, and in the markets, are shifting. They highlight the difficulty of interpreting real-time information in an environment flooded with conflicting narratives and misinformation.

At the center of the discussion is the global energy market, where disruptions to oil supply chains are already creating ripple effects. Will and Adam unpack the complexities of oil pricing, the divergence between spot and futures markets, and the downstream consequences for inflation, supply chains, and consumer costs. They explain how restricted access to critical shipping lanes and selective distribution of oil are distorting global trade flows, while also emphasizing how energy shocks historically increase the likelihood of recession.

Beyond energy, the episode expands into broader economic risks, including weakening consumer sentiment, a softening labor outlook, and structural challenges tied to AI disruption and private credit markets. Will and Adam outline three major threats facing the economy (geopolitical conflict, financial system fragility, and workforce disruption) while also acknowledging the surprising resilience of equity markets so far. Despite the uncertainty, they close with a balanced perspective: volatility may create meaningful risks, but it also opens the door for selective opportunities in a rapidly changing investment landscape.

Learn more about Formidable Asset Management, Will Brown, and Adam Eagleston by visiting www.formidableam.com.