Intelligence is about understanding the future, but what does the future hold for intelligence? Can the agencies keep up with the rapidly evolving world around us? We discuss these questions with Shay Hershkovitz, author of the Future of National Intelligence and delve into how the combination of new technology, generational shifts, climate change, and the competition for attention are changing the art of intelligence.

Outline

• Intelligence, technology, and national security (0:00)
• Future of intelligence profession, focusing on emerging technologies and their impact. (5:04)
• Transforming intelligence gathering in a rapidly changing world. (10:54)
• Emerging technologies impacting intelligence work, with AI and IoT as key areas of focus. (16:28)
• AI and IoT impact on national security and intelligence, with a focus on the limitations of AI and the importance of human cognition. (20:21)
• Using AI to enhance structured analytic techniques for better insights. (25:19)
• Using large language models to mimic adversary thinking in geopolitical scenarios. (32:04)
• Intelligence failures and the need for a new framework to evaluate effectiveness. (36:33)
• Limitations of early warning systems in predicting strategic surprises. (41:08)
• Using crowdsourcing and AI to improve intelligence gathering. (49:07)
• Outdated intelligence cycle model and its challenges in modern era. (57:54)
• The role of AI in intelligence work, potential benefits and limitations. (1:02:08)
• Transforming intelligence agencies with AI and collaboration. (1:07:59)
• Climate change's impact on national security and intelligence agencies. (1:16:29)