February marked the fourth anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It also marked the beginning of a new war. U.S. and Israel airstrikes on Iran have thrust the Persian Gulf into a devastating conflict with profound impacts for the global economy. Unprecedented strikes on energy infrastructure and disruptions in maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have led to the price of oil—and a wide range of other commodities—to skyrocket. 

Although the fighting is occurring in two different theaters, the wars in Iran and Ukraine may be converging. The rise in global energy prices are shifting the trajectory of the Russian economy, giving Russian President Vladimir Putin a much-needed fiscal boost. Meanwhile, Ukraine is responding to events in the Persian Gulf by increasingly targeting Russian energy infrastructure in an attempt to deny Putin his windfall. In this episode, we discuss how Putin stands to benefit from the Iran war with one of the sharpest observers of the Russian economy.

Alexandra Prokopenko is a Russian economist who is currently a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. Alexandra has spent her career observing the creation of Russian economic policy, first as a journalist and later as an economist at the Central Bank of Russia, where she worked until early 2022. She is also a member of the Bologna Initiative for Sanctions Relief.

The Sanctions Age is hosted by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj and Josefine Petrick.

To receive an email when new episodes are released, access episode transcripts, and read the hosts reflections on each episode, sign-up for the The Sanctions Age newsletter on Substack: https://www.thesanctionsage.com/