Groundhog Day must have come a week early in Washington, since Democrats are preparing to shut down the government—again. Last time around in October, they said the shutdown was over the price of healthcare, one of their best-polling issues with voters. That fight fired up their base and helped them win big in elections in New Jersey and Virginia.

This time they may shut down the government over immigration enforcement, one of their worst-polling issues in recent years. A funding bill recently passed by the House includes $10 billion for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and Senate Democrats want to condition that funding on reforms such as creating an independent investigator to oversee the agency.