Hey friends 👋

Six paying customers. $4,800 MRR. The founder already knows which two to discount. Same evidence. Cameron gives it an 8. JDM gives it a 6. That’s the conversation the Strength of Evidence Matrix is built for.

This week, we dig into the Strength of Evidence Matrix — one of the core Traction Lab tools. It evaluates your traction on two axes: how robust is the signal (from interest to intent), and how independent is the source (from affiliated to cold). Most founders count their evidence. This framework grades it — and most of the time, the grade is a lot worse than it looks.

From a pet emergency app drowning in warm surveys, to a background check SaaS with real revenue but one cold customer keeping the whole signal honest, to a B2B platform that made it from their rolodex all the way to a cold annual contract — we run three scenarios through the matrix and rate each on the conviction scale. There’s even a JDM-Cameron split on the last one.

JDM’s three-year Lord of the Rings marathon is almost over. Cameron just watched the GuLP team take fifth place and $10K in Minneapolis.

As always, thanks for listening.

—Cameron and JDM

Resources:

* High Conviction Happy Hour, August 27th

* Traction Lab Venture School

Timestamps

00:00 - Introduction

02:15 - Strength of Evidence Matrix

05:30 - Scenario 1: Pet emergency vet app

12:45 - Scenario 2: Background check SaaS

25:00 - Scenario 3: B2B CPG broker platform

40:00 - Frivolous Thoughts

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit zerototraction.substack.com