Hurricane Predictions vs. Reality – Through the Lens of an Independent Adjuster

 

Because we’re living in a technological age, it’s easy to assume that we understand almost everything about the world around us. However, while we have the sum of human knowledge at our fingertips, there’s one area where we still have a lot to learn - the weather.

 

Unfortunately, weather patterns matter a lot more than just deciding on whether you need a coat or shorts when you go outside. Storm systems like hurricanes and tornadoes can do severe damage, so it’s necessary to understand how to predict them. This also greatly affects our jobs as independent adjusters.

 

Many times the industry gets excited about a great prediction of what to expect from the coming hail storm or hurricane season, but how are the predictions doing verses the reality?

 

Today I want to look at hurricane predictions for the last five years and compare them to the actual results. We have mountains of data about hurricanes, but are we putting it to the best use and can you actually plan anything around these predictions? Let’s find out.

 

How are Hurricanes Predicted?

For the most part, scientists are only able to make predictions based on past trends. While current weather data (temperature, wind speeds, etc.) can help inform their decision, the best way to predict new storms is to see what happened in years past.

 

The other factor is what’s considered a “normal” hurricane season. Before, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) used data from 1950-2000 to determine that an average season would see 11 named storms, six hurricanes, and two significant hurricanes. However, the new model is based on data from 1981-2010, which paints a different picture.

 

Now, an average hurricane season is listed as 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Not a huge difference statistically, but one extra major storm can mean millions more in damages, so it’s a pretty drastic change overall.

 

Is This Data Accurate? Let’s Compare the last fast years

 

2012 Predictions

50% chance of a normal season

25% chance of an above-normal season

25% chance of a below-normal season

 

9-15 named storms

4-8 hurricanes

1-3 major hurricanes

 

2012 Actual

Apparently, the 25% chance of an above-normal season was enough, as this year saw an abundance of storms and hurricanes. In this case, NOAA came up short.

 

19 named tropical storms

10 hurricanes

2 major hurricanes (including Sandy)

 

2013 Predictions

2012 made NOAA reconsider their forecast models, so they were a bit more liberal for this year.

 

70% chance of above normal season

13-20 named storms

7-11 hurricanes

3-6 major hurricanes

 

2013 Actual

Fearing the worst, this season turned out to be one of the quietest and least active in history. In fact, it was the lowest number of hurricanes since 1982.

 

15 tropical storms

2 hurricanes

No major hurricanes

 

2014 Predictions

As we can see, looking at past data can skew results in one way or another. In 2014, the season was considered average based on the low results of 2013.

 

70% chance of a normal season

8-13 named storms

3-6 hurricanes

1-2 major hurricanes

 

2014 Actual

This year was much lower than average, although there were still two major hurricanes (Edouard and Gonzalo)

 

3 named storms

4 hurricanes

2 major hurricanes

 

2015 Predictions

Because of the previous two years, this outlook was optimistic.

 

70% chance of a below normal season

6-11 named